Saturday, March 3, 2012

Sunday Funday Pt. II



Game:  Ohio State @ Michigan State
Spread:  Michigan State -2.5

There's a lot at stake in this game.  Not only is the Big Ten regular season championship up for grabs, but I think the B1G POY will be decided in this game as well.  If Draymond Green and Jared Sullinger exchange blows all game, then it belongs to Green.  If, somehow Sullinger dominates this game and Green struggles, it won't be so clear as to who ends up with the hardware.  When you look at the first match-up between these two teams a couple things stand out to me:
  • William Buford and Aaron Craft shot poorly (combined they were 4 for 24 shooting)
  • Michigan State's depth won that game
Ohio State's starting five is one of the best starting groups in the country.  The Buckeye's problem?  Their depth.  In the game against Michigan State look at the minutes logged by their starter's:
  • Willam Buford:  36 minutes
  • Aaron Craft:  40 minutes
  • Deshaun Thomas:  32 minutes
  • Lorenzo Smith, Jr.:  30 minutes
  • Jared Sullinger:  40 minutes
A total of seven Buckeye's played that game while Sparty rotated ten players.  When you look at OSU's schedule, Michigan State is the only team that has been able to produce a second string that could still compete against their starter's (I would expect an argument to this statement to be Duke ... look at their roster, outside of interchanging Plumlee's they don't have many options).  Because Ohio State is forced to play their starter's so much (out of 200 minutes, their starter's have averaged 147.9 minutes per game this season), there has to be concerns about their conditioning this late in the season.  Maybe Ohio State can use the excuse that they just didn't want to share a championship with Michigan once this game is over.  I think the first half will be close, but I do expect Michigan State's abundance of depth on the road to be too much for the Buckeye's to handle.

Pick:  Michigan State -2.5

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