Round of 64: B1G Picks Pt. II

Yesterday is why I decided not to join any pools.  I went 11-5 and didn't lose any Sweet 16 games as of yet, which doesn't sound bad.  But my wife, who doesn't know much outside of Indiana basketball went 14-2 (including picking 11 seeded Colorado, from the Pac12 ... who would take anyone from the Pac12??? Well, my wife did and got it right).  Anyway, today is a new day.

I went 1-2 in my B1G picks yesterday.  Didn't see Wisconsin's offensive explosion coming, or Montana's lack of offense for that matter either.  If the Hoosiers keep winning when I pick against them, I'll keep picking against them simple as that. And I'll admit I got lucky in the Ohio State game.  I really wasn't expecting them to sit their starters with 3 minutes left.


Game:  Michigan vs Ohio
Spread:  Michigan -5.5


FACT: Michigan shot more three pointers than any team in the B1G; is 16th nationally in three pointers attempted per game; is 27th nationally in three pointers made per game; and is 8th nationally in three pointers attempted as a percentage of totals shots attempted per game.

FACT: Ohio University has the 18th ranked defense against the three pointer, holding opponents to just 30.3% on the season.

FACT: Michigan went 2-1 in the B1G against teams who were better defensively against the three than Ohio. They beat Wisconsin, ranked 7th defensively against the three by holding opponents to 29.0% beyond the arc and they split with Michigan State, ranked 10th defensively against the three, holding opponents to 29.2% shooting from deep.

FACT: Ohio University allows 31.1% three point shooting away from home, which would rank them 40th in the country.

FACT:  Ohio University has allowed 41.8% three point shooting over their last three games, which would only rank them 344 out of 345 Division I schools (all on a neutral court for the Mid American conference tournament).

Conclusion:  Ohio University is in trouble.

Pick:  Michigan -5.5


Game: St. Mary's vs Purdue
Spread:  St. Mary's -1.5


I know what Purdue is capable of and I know what Robbie Hummel is capable of.  The problem is I'm unaware of what St. Mary's is capable of.  I know they're the only team in the last 11 years to win a West Coast Conference tournament title other than Gonzaga.  How do you compare the top team of a mid-major conference to a middle of the road team in what was considered to be the toughest conference in the country all year.  You go with what you know. The B1G tournament teams were 3-0 against WCC tournament teams.  It's hard to argue with the competition the Boilermaker's faced week in and week out.  Hard to argue that Purdue wouldn't be more prepared than St. Mary's.  They're also more well rested as they didn't make a deep run in the B1G conference tournament.  B1G continues it's strong showing in the tournament thus far and the Boilermaker's give the conference it's only possible upset in the Round of 64.

Pick:  Purdue +1.5


Game:  Michigan State vs Long Island
Spread:  Michigan State -19.5


I don't care what happened with Syracuse yesterday.  You should always expect the 1 seeds to win by 20+.  Do I need anymore analysis than that?  Oh yeah, one more word that means something in March: Izzo.

Pick:  Michigan State -19.5