Spread: Wisconsin -9
If you follow B1G basketball, then you're well aware of Bo Ryan's style of play. Methodically take the shot clock down to under ten seconds before taking a shot, shot a high percentage and play hard nosed defense for forty minutes. The only problem this year? They haven't been so methodical on offense. They're only averaging 64 points a game (good for 263rd in D1) and are only shooting 42% from the field (good for 230th in D1). More often than I've ever witnessed under Bo Ryan, the Badger offense can go stagnant and let's face it, defense can take you only so far.
Match-up to watch: Jordan Taylor vs. Will Cherry. Statistically speaking they're identical players. However, due to the style of play for their respective team, Cherry has more of an opportunity to take over a game.
Pick: Montana +9
Game: Indiana vs. New Mexico State
Spread: Indiana -6.5
In the B1G tournament, I said they wouldn't show up. After all, there wasn't a Hoosier on their roster that had played a single minute in the post season. Result? They blew a Penn State team out of the water by nearly 20. It's tough to confidently pick this team. This is one of several Jekyll and Hyde teams in the field this year. I feel that maybe we can attribute Indiana's performance in their opening game of their conference tournament to familiarity with their opponent. They won't have that luxury in this game, on top of the fact they're traveling all the way to Portland to play.
A lot of factors seem to be going against the Hoosiers in their first NCAA tourney game under Tom Crean. It also doesn't make me feel well that the line opened up at -6 and has hardly moved. I don't know a lot about New Mexico State, but I do know they know how to get to the free throw line (shot 350+ more free throws than their opponent this year). I do know they have a Draymond Green type player in Wendell McKines who averages nearly 20 points a game. It's a scary match-up against an unfamiliar opponent, in an unfamiliar part of the country, in an unfamiliar post season atmosphere. No upset alert, but New Mexico makes this a close one.
Match-up to watch: Cody Zeller vs. Wendell McKines. McKines is a volume shooter. He averaged around 17 shots per game during the regular season. That's a lot of possessions that Zeller is going to have to guard the post. Expect to see a combination of Watford / Sheehey / Elston / Pritchard / Zeller on McKines throughout the game. The Hoosiers can't afford for Zeller to get in foul trouble and the Aggies are dedicated to feeding the post. New Mexico State had one of the biggest discrepancies in foul shooting, when compared to their opponents, in the country and McKines is a big reason why.
Pick: New Mexico St. +6.5
Game: Ohio State vs. Loyola (Md.)
Spread: Ohio State -17
In the B1G, there's Ohio State and Michigan State .. and then there's everybody else. Aside from the Buckeyes, I think the remainder of the B1G schools on Thursday have a relatively tough game (duh, OSU is a 2-seed). The loss in the conference championship may have been the best thing to happen to Thad Matta's team heading into the Big Dance. They almost looked entitled when calls wouldn't go there way and I saw a lack of maturity in Sullinger that I hadn't seen in a long time. Hopefully that loss put things in to perspective and refocused them. They'll need it as they don't exactly have an easy road to the Final 4 (potential match-ups against Gonzaga, West Virginia, Florida State, Texas or Cincinnati just to get to Elite 8).
Match-up to watch: Jared Sullinger vs. The Referees. As I mentioned before, during the conference championship Sully seemed to get pretty chippy with some of the calls that were going against him. That probably didn't help him get many calls down the stretch. Hopefully he can keep his composure during the tournament which may give him the benefit of the doubt and could go a long way in keeping him out of foul trouble.
Pick: Ohio State -17
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