Game: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State -1.5
Well I think it was clear who the x-factor was the last time these two teams met. Before Branden Dawson goes down with a season-ending knee injury, the Spartans enjoyed a nine point lead at home and were dominating on the offensive end of the floor. As soon as he left the game, however, the tide, the momentum, the effectiveness all swayed into Ohio States favor.
Who knew a freshman could have that big of an impact on a game? When you sit back and think about what he brings to the table, as far as his skill set is concerned, it absolutely makes sense. Michigan State does have an abundance of depth (as mentioned in my previous post on this match-up). What I failed to initially realize is where their depth was. Who can the Spartans rely upon to make their own shots? Who do they rely upon to be the athletic wingman that can get out in transition and make something happen? Brandon Wood can only take them so far, but the combination of Wood and Dawson was reliable and consistent.
You would then think that Keith Appling should be the next man up to provide an offensive spark. With Aaron Craft guarding him all game, that may be a tall task in terms of scoring. I think when Michigan State's offense is at their best is when Appling focuses on being a facilitator to their offense, rather than him looking to score. Without Dawson, this may have to change a bit. Sure, Michigan State has easily rolled their way into the championship, but so has Ohio State.
Regardless of any analysis that you read or hear anywhere, this is going to be another grind it out affair between the best the B1G has to offer (sorry Michigan, congrats on tying for the regular season crown, but in my opinion you're still a step below these teams). This is what makes the B1G the best conference in my opinion. Anything can happen in this game. It could be close; Michigan State could win by 20+; or Ohio State could win by 20+. This is a stay away game from a betting stand point, but how can I not just make a prediction?
At the end of the day, just enjoy the matchup because across the other BCS conferences, this will be the only match-up between the two best teams from their respective conference.
Pick: Ohio State -1.5
NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions (seeds are in parentheses)
Ohio State (1) *
Michigan State (2) *
Wisconsin (4)
Michigan (4)
Indiana (5)
Purdue (7)
Northwestern (bubble officially bursted with their loss to Minnesota in first round)
* The winner of the championship game today will get the one seed with the consolation for the losing team being a two seed. Obviously I had to make my predictions align with my pick for the game.
March Madness is here!!
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