'Heat' Check

Game:  Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Spread:  Miami -4.5


I guess Vegas just thinks they have to struggle at some point.  In the last ten games, the Heat are 8-2 against the spread.  Out of those ten games, seven of them were on the road. Out of those seven road games, they were 6-1 against the spread.  Their only loss?  At Orlando, ten games ago.

I admit I was a little skeptical last night at Portland, without Chris Bosh.  They looked better than ever.  Lebron James guarded all five positions and combined, LBJ and DWade scored 71 points on 25 of 45 shooting.  Just re-read that last sentence.  And again.

Moral of the story?  Don't doubt the Heat, just go with it.  I don't care if this is on the road and the second night of a back-to-back.  Need I remind you that in February; in their fifth road game in a row; their third road game in three days; favored by only two points at Indiana ... they won by fifteen.  That may not sound impressive, but they were up by 30+ in the third quarter and LBJ / DWade didn't play hardly at all in the fourth quarter.  This is not a normal team.  As long as Vegas keeps throwing lines like this against mediocre teams, I'll take it.

Pick:  Miami -4.5


Game:  Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets
Spread:  Dallas -6.5


Quick, who is the starting five for the Hornets?  Outside of Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman, I couldn't have answered that question myself without looking it up.  The only reason I knew of Gordon and Kaman is because of the Chris Paul trade.  Gordon has missed all but two games this season with knee problems and without him the Hornets can't really compete with that many teams.

Dallas on the other hand, seems to have hit their stride as of late.  The veteran laden team took a couple of weeks to catch up with the season, starting the season 0-5.  Since that horrendous start, they have gone 21-10 and currently hold the fifth seed in the Western Conference.  This is a team that took advantage of every second of the All-Star break to recuperate in preparation for the second half push.  This is a perfect game and opponent for them to gain some confidence as well as momentum as they look to prove they can at least contend for a repeat.  I think this will be a sweat to cover, but I think Dirk gets them there in the fourth.

Pick:  Dallas -6.5


Blogger's Note:  As I was writing this post, the line for the Dallas / NO game moved to Dallas -7.  The half point doesn't concern me with this particular match-up.  Definitely get it before it moves to Dallas -7.5, because I think that's where the line will end up.