Game: Illinois vs. Iowa
Spread: Illinois -2
Both of these teams share the same fate: Win or go to the NIT. The Illini have enough talent to make a deep run in this tournament. Especially since they would play a Branden Dawson-less Spartan squad should they beat what I think is a less-talented Hawkeye team. Here's the catch, more talent doesn't guarantee wins in March. Iowa certainly has some intangible advantages over Illinois. More senior leadership, they don't have to worry about whether their coach is going to make it through the off-season and they just seem to be playing with the B1G toughness that Illinois has lacked the second half of the season.
This line opened up as a pick two days ago and has since moved to Illinois being a two point favorite. I know I said that talent doesn't guarantee wins, but maybe Illinois gave up on the regular season. Maybe they put all of their chips in the B1G tournament. Maybe, just maybe, they want to play to try and save their coach's job. I think short of winning this tournament, Illinois would have to make a rather deep run in the NIT to make the decision to get rid of Bruce Weber a difficult one. They may not win the entire tournament, but one more time, I'm taking the Illini to show some signs of life and at least take care of Iowa .
Pick: Illinois -2 (really wish I would have picked this game when the line opened, would have loved to have had Illinois - pk)
Game: Indiana vs. Penn State
Spread: Indiana -13.5
Indiana is easily the hottest team in the B1G entering the tournament. They finished the season winning seven out of their last eight games, including impressive (understatement) wins at home against then #5 Michigan State and arch-rival Purdue. Any way you slice it, the final two games are probably the best back-to-back performances of their entire season. Is Indiana peaking at the right time? It certainly has gotten the attention of some analysts and even CBS's Jim Nantz has publicly chosen Indiana as one of his Final Four teams.
It's easy to forget that this is the same Indiana team that doesn't have a player on its current roster that has won a single post-season game, B1G or otherwise. I'll admit that as a Hoosier fan, the way the team is playing has me extremely excited to see my alma mater start racking up some post season victories again, but I'm not naive enough to think it will come easy. Penn State made a B1G championship run just last season, so they know how ruin championship hopes against better teams. This line opened up with Indiana being 11.5 point favorites. There's a lot of pressure on this Indiana team that isn't used to anything resembling expectations in March.
Am I predicting an upset? Absolutely not. The question that should I should be and am considering is, "Do I think this will be a comfortable win?" Eh, depends on what you call comfortable. I don't think this is a one possession game, but this isn't a blow-out waiting to happen. Maybe I'm trying to hedge my emotions with this pick, but I think the Hoosiers come out flat in the beginning, but find a away to pull out an ugly win.
Pick: Penn State +13.5
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