Overall: 21-11
Sweet 16 Teams Lost: 2 (Mizzou & Temple)
Elite 8 / Final 4 Team Lost: 1 (Mizzou)
Tournament Picks: 3-3
Game: Ohio State vs Gonzaga
Spread: Ohio State -7.5
If you're a fan of a school from a big conference, the last thing you wanted was a reason for these smaller schools to have a chip on their shoulders. And then there were two 15 seed upsets within a span of three hours. And now, the 2 seeded Ohio State Buckeyes get to face the mid-major who wrote the book on being a March Madness Cinderella: Gonzaga. All of a sudden it feels like it's not a good year to be a 2 seed.
Throw in that the East is the only bracket in the tournament that didn't see a first round upset and it's almost common sense that something's gotta give. Maybe this game won't end up as an upset, but 7.5 points is a lot to give a team who always plays their best basketball in March. I know in the previous post I gave the WCC a hard time, but of the three losses they have against the B1G, the Zags were involved in two of those games (Illinois, Wisconsin). If they could take away anything from those games, it's a sense of the B1G style of play.
Match-up to watch: Kevin Pangos vs Aaron Craft. The Zags got off to a fast start against the Mountaineers thanks to Pangos'. He scored the Zags first five points and ended up hitting his first five shots of the game (including a couple of three pointers). Hopefully Craft can stay out of foul trouble in this game because he's the Buckeye's only shot to slow him down.
Also consider: The Zags have a true 7-footer in Robert Sacre while the tallest player the Buckeyes have that sees regular minutes is 6'9''. Sullinger may be more athletic, but Evan Ravenel may have to see extended minutes in this game to keep Sully from getting in foul trouble. I wouldn't exactly consider that an advantage for Ohio State.
Pick: Gonzaga +7.5
Game: Wisconsin vs Vanderbilt
Spread: Vanderbilt -1
The selection committee wasn't kind to Wisconsin. They passed the first test against a high scoring team, in Montana, that relied on their point guard to create. Luckily the Badger's size down low disrupted any chance Cherry Hill had to get going, specifically Jared Berggren who finished with a career high seven blocks.
Now they get to play one of the best scoring duos in the country in Vandy's John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor. Neither are small point guards, both can shoot lights out, both can create of the dribble... Uh-oh. This will be interesting to see which style of play prevails in this one. The Commodores want to get out and run a little bit, but I guess any school likes to get out and run a bit when compared to Wisconsin. Vanderbilt also has the athletes to crash the boards with Wisconsin which is where they had one of their biggest mis-matches against Montana. And don't think anyone on Vanderbilt is going to let Jordan Taylor tea-bag them going for a rebound like he did against the Grizz's seven footer on Thursday. I think this is just a mis-match nightmare for the Badgers.
Match-up to watch: John Jenkins vs Badgers Perimeter Defense. If Jenkins gets into a rhythm from deep, game over. If Wisconsin can keep him from getting comfortable with his shot then they may have a chance. I honestly do think that Wisconsin needs another miracle performance from Rob Wilson (yeah, I may still be bitter about his 30 point performance against the Hoosiers) to win this one.
Pick: Vanderbilt -1
Game: Indiana vs VCU
Spread: Indiana -6
Simple, if Indiana shoots the way they did against New Mexico State, this game will be over quickly. Only problem is, can the Hoosiers can get the ball across mid court to get in their half court sets? Indiana hasn't seen any "havoc" like what Shaka Smart's squad is going to throw at them for forty minutes tonight. Turnover's have been an issue periodically this season for Indiana and limiting them is the biggest key to this game.
Everyone knows VCU has athletes, but not many people know that they can shoot the three just as good as any team in the country. Another problem area for Indiana throughout this season: perimeter defense. Any team that can consistently hit open three's can stay in a game with the Hoosiers (i.e., Wisconsin in the B1G tournament).
This analysis really is simple.
Match-up to watch: Indiana's Guards vs VCU's Havoc. If they can handle the pressure and / or get out in transition to avoid the pressure without turning the ball over, Indiana can book a ticket to the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, Indiana hasn't seen anything resembling this kind of pressure all season. No tournament experience meets Final Four experience (oddly enough).
Pick: VCU +6
No comments:
Post a Comment