Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. II

Game:  Michigan State vs Saint Louis
Spread:  Michigan State -7


One of three.  That's what Draymond Green is.  He joined Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson as the only players in NCAA history to record more than on triple-double in tournament play.  I would imagine that Green won't get his third against the Billikens and their 8th ranked defense (according to the Pomeroy rankings).  That doesn't mean that Day-Day won't dominate yet another game.

Match-up to watch:  Kwamain Mitchell vs Keith Appling.  Kwamain keyed the Billiken's second half run against Memphis and finished with 22 points and a pair of three pointers.  He's only 5'10'', but is extremely quick.  With Branden Dawson out, I think Appling will continue to be the x-factor for the Spartans, especially now that they're going to be playing a team that has some size in their front court.  Green may be able to get his points, but I wouldn't count on Derrick Nix to be as dominant as he was in the first round.  Appling should be able to use his length, on both sides of the ball, to his advantage all game.

Pick:  Michigan State -7


Game:  Kansas vs Purdue
Spread:  Kansas -7.5


I'm a huge Hoosier fan, but I'm also a huge college basketball fan.  And as a college basketball fan, this really is an anti-climactic ending to a great career for Robbie Hummel.  The biggest problem the Boilermaker's have tried to battle all season is their lack of a presence down low.  Now they have to figure out how to contain one of the best big men in the country in Thomas Robinson.  If they double team him, who's going to guard the Jayhawk's seven footer?  The only chance Purdue has to make this a game is to use their quickness and athleticism that they have in their much smaller line-up to force Kansas to play small with them.  If they are hitting from deep it could be a close game.

Match-up to watch:  Ryne Smith / DJ Byrd vs Jayhawk Perimeter Defense.  Kansas knows they need to swarm Robbie Hummel, but the keys to this game will be whether or not the other perimeter shooters for Purdue can get going.  If they can't, this could wind up being a long game. At the end of the day, it's a tough way to see Hummel go.

Pick:  Kansas -7.5

Rapid Reaction: Hoosiers S16 Bound

There's a combination of two words in the gambling world that means there's no pressure, that you know you're at least not going to lose any money: free roll.  The Indiana Hoosiers have just earned that in a Sweet 16 rematch with rival Kentucky.  Regardless of the outcome of that game, the Hoosiers season has been a success; most would consider this year an overachievement.

And sure the Wildcats could blow out the Hoosiers by twenty come Friday, but you know what will be the take away from this rivalry after the Madness has ended? Hoosier Nation, foes and the college basketball world witnessed the come back of a storied program... at the expense of the Kentucky Wildcats.

Free roll.  There will be no pressure on the Hoosiers on Friday.  They can't play any worse than they did tonight.  They turned the ball over a season high 22 times against probably the best defensive scheme left in the tournament.  What was lost in all of the turnover's was the fact that Indiana was playing it's best defense of the season as well in the second half.  A half which they held the Rams to just 19 points and held them to under 40% shooting.

Free roll.  The Hoosiers weren't even supposed to make the tournament this year and they're in the Sweet 16.  They don't have four lottery picks on their team.  They aren't expected to win this game.  Seth Davis will probably pick against this team one more time.  And maybe that's how this team wants it to be. They've thrived in similar situations all season.

Free roll. Something the Kentucky Wildcats are not on. They have championship expectations facing a team that has already beaten them.  A team that clearly is less talented at an individual level, but team-wise can compete with anyone and they know it.

On Friday when these two schools battle for a spot in the Elite 8, if you're an Indiana fan just sit back and enjoy.  After all, this is supposedly where the road ends. You know, since we were supposedly headed for the NIT before the season started.  Oh and we were supposedly one and done once we made the tournament field.

If you're a Kentucky fan?  This is your worst nightmare.  Nothing worse than playing a team in March that knows they have nothing to lose.

Blogger's Note:  There's a few times that I'll have to let my fandom take over and obviously tonight is one of those instances.  I'm 5-4 in my B1G picks so far in the tournament.  I will post my preview / analysis / picks for the remaining Round of 32 games tomorrow morning before tip.  GO HOOSIERS!!

Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. I

First Round Bracket Results:
Overall: 21-11
Sweet 16 Teams Lost: 2 (Mizzou & Temple)
Elite 8 / Final 4 Team Lost:  1 (Mizzou)

Tournament Picks:  3-3


Game:  Ohio State vs Gonzaga
Spread:  Ohio State -7.5


If you're a fan of a school from a big conference, the last thing you wanted was a reason for these smaller schools to have a chip on their shoulders.  And then there were two 15 seed upsets within a span of three hours.  And now, the 2 seeded Ohio State Buckeyes get to face the mid-major who wrote the book on being a March Madness Cinderella: Gonzaga.  All of a sudden it feels like it's not a good year to be a 2 seed.

Throw in that the East is the only bracket in the tournament that didn't see a first round upset and it's almost common sense that something's gotta give.  Maybe this game won't end up as an upset, but 7.5 points is a lot to give a team who always plays their best basketball in March.  I know in the previous post I gave the WCC a hard time, but of the three losses they have against the B1G, the Zags were involved in two of those games (Illinois, Wisconsin).  If they could take away anything from those games, it's a sense of the B1G style of play.

Match-up to watch:  Kevin Pangos vs Aaron Craft.  The Zags got off to a fast start against the Mountaineers thanks to Pangos'.  He scored the Zags first five points and ended up hitting his first five shots of the game (including a couple of three pointers).  Hopefully Craft can stay out of foul trouble in this game because he's the Buckeye's only shot to slow him down.

Also consider:  The Zags have a true 7-footer in Robert Sacre while the tallest player the Buckeyes have that sees regular minutes is 6'9''.  Sullinger may be more athletic, but Evan Ravenel may have to see extended minutes in this game to keep Sully from getting in foul trouble.  I wouldn't exactly consider that an advantage for Ohio State.

Pick:  Gonzaga +7.5


Game: Wisconsin vs Vanderbilt
Spread:  Vanderbilt -1


The selection committee wasn't kind to Wisconsin.  They passed the first test against a high scoring team, in Montana, that relied on their point guard to create.  Luckily the Badger's size down low disrupted any chance Cherry Hill had to get going, specifically Jared Berggren who finished with a career high seven blocks.

Now they get to play one of the best scoring duos in the country in Vandy's John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor.  Neither are small point guards, both can shoot lights out, both can create of the dribble... Uh-oh.  This will be interesting to see which style of play prevails in this one.  The Commodores want to get out and run a little bit, but I guess any school likes to get out and run a bit when compared to Wisconsin.  Vanderbilt also has the athletes to crash the boards with Wisconsin which is where they had one of their biggest mis-matches against Montana.  And don't think anyone on Vanderbilt is going to let Jordan Taylor tea-bag them going for a rebound like he did against the Grizz's seven footer on Thursday.  I think this is just a mis-match nightmare for the Badgers.

Match-up to watch:  John Jenkins vs Badgers Perimeter Defense.  If Jenkins gets into a rhythm from deep, game over.  If Wisconsin can keep him from getting comfortable with his shot then they may have a chance.  I honestly do think that Wisconsin needs another miracle performance from Rob Wilson (yeah, I may still be bitter about his 30 point performance against the Hoosiers) to win this one.

Pick:  Vanderbilt -1


Game:  Indiana vs VCU
Spread: Indiana -6


Simple, if Indiana shoots the way they did against New Mexico State, this game will be over quickly.  Only problem is, can the Hoosiers can get the ball across mid court to get in their half court sets? Indiana hasn't seen any "havoc" like what Shaka Smart's squad is going to throw at them for forty minutes tonight.  Turnover's have been an issue periodically this season for Indiana and limiting them is the biggest key to this game.

Everyone knows VCU has athletes, but not many people know that they can shoot the three just as good as any team in the country.  Another problem area for Indiana throughout this season: perimeter defense.  Any team that can consistently hit open three's can stay in a game with the Hoosiers (i.e., Wisconsin in the B1G tournament).

This analysis really is simple.

Match-up to watch:  Indiana's Guards vs VCU's Havoc.  If they can handle the pressure and / or get out in transition to avoid the pressure without turning the ball over, Indiana can book a ticket to the Sweet 16.  Unfortunately, Indiana hasn't seen anything resembling this kind of pressure all season.  No tournament experience meets Final Four experience (oddly enough).

Pick:  VCU +6

Round of 64: B1G Picks Pt. II

Yesterday is why I decided not to join any pools.  I went 11-5 and didn't lose any Sweet 16 games as of yet, which doesn't sound bad.  But my wife, who doesn't know much outside of Indiana basketball went 14-2 (including picking 11 seeded Colorado, from the Pac12 ... who would take anyone from the Pac12??? Well, my wife did and got it right).  Anyway, today is a new day.

I went 1-2 in my B1G picks yesterday.  Didn't see Wisconsin's offensive explosion coming, or Montana's lack of offense for that matter either.  If the Hoosiers keep winning when I pick against them, I'll keep picking against them simple as that. And I'll admit I got lucky in the Ohio State game.  I really wasn't expecting them to sit their starters with 3 minutes left.


Game:  Michigan vs Ohio
Spread:  Michigan -5.5


FACT: Michigan shot more three pointers than any team in the B1G; is 16th nationally in three pointers attempted per game; is 27th nationally in three pointers made per game; and is 8th nationally in three pointers attempted as a percentage of totals shots attempted per game.

FACT: Ohio University has the 18th ranked defense against the three pointer, holding opponents to just 30.3% on the season.

FACT: Michigan went 2-1 in the B1G against teams who were better defensively against the three than Ohio. They beat Wisconsin, ranked 7th defensively against the three by holding opponents to 29.0% beyond the arc and they split with Michigan State, ranked 10th defensively against the three, holding opponents to 29.2% shooting from deep.

FACT: Ohio University allows 31.1% three point shooting away from home, which would rank them 40th in the country.

FACT:  Ohio University has allowed 41.8% three point shooting over their last three games, which would only rank them 344 out of 345 Division I schools (all on a neutral court for the Mid American conference tournament).

Conclusion:  Ohio University is in trouble.

Pick:  Michigan -5.5


Game: St. Mary's vs Purdue
Spread:  St. Mary's -1.5


I know what Purdue is capable of and I know what Robbie Hummel is capable of.  The problem is I'm unaware of what St. Mary's is capable of.  I know they're the only team in the last 11 years to win a West Coast Conference tournament title other than Gonzaga.  How do you compare the top team of a mid-major conference to a middle of the road team in what was considered to be the toughest conference in the country all year.  You go with what you know. The B1G tournament teams were 3-0 against WCC tournament teams.  It's hard to argue with the competition the Boilermaker's faced week in and week out.  Hard to argue that Purdue wouldn't be more prepared than St. Mary's.  They're also more well rested as they didn't make a deep run in the B1G conference tournament.  B1G continues it's strong showing in the tournament thus far and the Boilermaker's give the conference it's only possible upset in the Round of 64.

Pick:  Purdue +1.5


Game:  Michigan State vs Long Island
Spread:  Michigan State -19.5


I don't care what happened with Syracuse yesterday.  You should always expect the 1 seeds to win by 20+.  Do I need anymore analysis than that?  Oh yeah, one more word that means something in March: Izzo.

Pick:  Michigan State -19.5

Round of 64: B1G Picks Pt. I

Game:  Wisconsin vs. Montana
Spread:  Wisconsin -9


If you follow B1G basketball, then you're well aware of Bo Ryan's style of play.  Methodically take the shot clock down to under ten seconds before taking a shot, shot a high percentage and play hard nosed defense for forty minutes.  The only problem this year?  They haven't been so methodical on offense.  They're only averaging 64 points a game (good for 263rd in D1) and are only shooting 42% from the field (good for 230th in D1).  More often than I've ever witnessed under Bo Ryan, the Badger offense can go stagnant and let's face it, defense can take you only so far.

Match-up to watch:  Jordan Taylor vs. Will Cherry.  Statistically speaking they're identical players.  However, due to the style of play for their respective team, Cherry has more of an opportunity to take over a game.

Pick:  Montana +9


Game:  Indiana vs. New Mexico State
Spread: Indiana -6.5


In the B1G tournament, I said they wouldn't show up.  After all, there wasn't a Hoosier on their roster that had played a single minute in the post season.  Result? They blew a Penn State team out of the water by nearly 20.  It's tough to confidently pick this team.  This is one of several Jekyll and Hyde teams in the field this year. I feel that maybe we can attribute Indiana's performance in their opening game of their conference tournament to familiarity with their opponent.  They won't have that luxury in this game, on top of the fact they're traveling all the way to Portland to play.

A lot of factors seem to be going against the Hoosiers in their first NCAA tourney game under Tom Crean.  It also doesn't make me feel well that the line opened up at -6 and has hardly moved.  I don't know a lot about New Mexico State, but I do know they know how to get to the free throw line (shot 350+ more free throws than their opponent this year).  I do know they have a Draymond Green type player in Wendell McKines who averages nearly 20 points a game.  It's a scary match-up against an unfamiliar opponent, in an unfamiliar part of the country, in an unfamiliar post season atmosphere.  No upset alert, but New Mexico makes this a close one.

Match-up to watch:  Cody Zeller vs. Wendell McKines.  McKines is a volume shooter.  He averaged around 17 shots per game during the regular season.  That's a lot of possessions that Zeller is going to have to guard the post. Expect to see a combination of Watford / Sheehey / Elston / Pritchard / Zeller on McKines throughout the game.  The Hoosiers can't afford for Zeller to get in foul trouble and the Aggies are dedicated to feeding the post.  New Mexico State had one of the biggest discrepancies in foul shooting, when compared to their opponents, in the country and McKines is a big reason why.

Pick:  New Mexico St. +6.5


Game: Ohio State vs. Loyola (Md.)
Spread: Ohio State -17


In the B1G, there's Ohio State and Michigan State .. and then there's everybody else.  Aside from the Buckeyes, I think the remainder of the B1G schools on Thursday have a relatively tough game (duh, OSU is a 2-seed).  The loss in the conference championship may have been the best thing to happen to Thad Matta's team heading into the Big Dance.  They almost looked entitled when calls wouldn't go there way and I saw a lack of maturity in Sullinger that I hadn't seen in a long time.  Hopefully that loss put things in to perspective and refocused them.  They'll need it as they don't exactly have an easy road to the Final 4 (potential match-ups against Gonzaga, West Virginia, Florida State, Texas or Cincinnati just to get to Elite 8).

Match-up to watch:  Jared Sullinger vs. The Referees.  As I mentioned before, during the conference championship Sully seemed to get pretty chippy with some of the calls that were going against him.  That probably didn't help him get many calls down the stretch.  Hopefully he can keep his composure during the tournament which may give him the benefit of the doubt and could go a long way in keeping him out of foul trouble.

Pick:  Ohio State -17

March Madness: Make it your Own

Are you ready?  It's here.  March Madness is here.  Get your brackets filled out, start picking upsets, figure out who this year's Cinderella is going to be and try your damnedest to make those ESPN analysts look like fools.  Aside from the bracket master himself, Joe Lunardi, I really hate listening to any analyst talk about the tournament.  Their only goal is to come up with the most outrageous picks across the board on the off chance that it actually happens so they can sit on camera smitten, with the I told you so look.  I mean honestly, you can see egos grow exponentially during this time of year.

Personally, I always take twenty to thirty minutes with a bracket right in front of me and I imagine Will Smith is giving me the Legend of Bagger Vance pep talk.  This obviously sends me into a deep focus.  I jump into the bracket and just start making miracle picks.  

Of course, I think in the 15 years I've been filling out brackets I've only had one or two absolutely amazing brackets.  But that's not the point.  Every year I enter the Madness with the expectation that all of the games I've watched and all of the articles I've read will give me the power to pick perfection.  Everyone thinks they know enough to pick these games.  And then Butler / VCU happens.  And then George Mason happens.  Don't worry about the analysis that twenty people between ESPN / CBS / TNT are trying to sell you on.  Come up with your own picks based on your own knowledge.  It's going to get you to the same place those so-called gurus are trying to get you to ... a mediocre bracket most years with a pretty good bracket once every 10 years.

Enjoy the Madness; embrace the Madness. Try to predict the unpredictable. Don't worry about who the public thinks is the favorite; don't worry about who told you what; don't worry about what some system based on 100 factors told you the outcome was going to be; just sit down and remember ... "It's just you and the field" (... of 68).

Blogger's Note:  I have added a link to the only bracket I'm going to fill out this year in the "Links to check out" section to the right.  I'll try to convince Kramer and TheRealLinsanity to add their bracket's before Thursday.  As far as picks go for the tournament, I plan on picking only B1G games the first couple of rounds.  Once we reach the Elite 8, I will pick every single game from that point forward.  Good luck my fellow degenerates!

Big Ten: Championship Pick / NCAA Seeding

Game:  Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Spread:  Ohio State -1.5


Well I think it was clear who the x-factor was the last time these two teams met.  Before Branden Dawson goes down with a season-ending knee injury, the Spartans enjoyed a nine point lead at home and were dominating on the offensive end of the floor.  As soon as he left the game, however, the tide, the momentum, the effectiveness all swayed into Ohio States favor.

Who knew a freshman could have that big of an impact on a game?  When you sit back and think about what he brings to the table, as far as his skill set is concerned, it absolutely makes sense.  Michigan State does have an abundance of depth (as mentioned in my previous post on this match-up).  What I failed to initially realize is where their depth was.  Who can the Spartans rely upon to make their own shots?  Who do they rely upon to be the athletic wingman that can get out in transition and make something happen?  Brandon Wood can only take them so far, but the combination of Wood and Dawson was reliable and consistent.

You would then think that Keith Appling should be the next man up to provide an offensive spark.  With Aaron Craft guarding him all game, that may be a tall task in terms of scoring.  I think when Michigan State's offense is at their best is when Appling focuses on being a facilitator to their offense, rather than him looking to score.  Without Dawson, this may have to change a bit.  Sure, Michigan State has easily rolled their way into the championship, but so has Ohio State.

Regardless of any analysis that you read or hear anywhere, this is going to be another grind it out affair between the best the B1G has to offer (sorry Michigan, congrats on tying for the regular season crown, but in my opinion you're still a step below these teams).  This is what makes the B1G the best conference in my opinion. Anything can happen in this game.  It could be close; Michigan State could win by 20+; or Ohio State could win by 20+.  This is a stay away game from a betting stand point, but how can I not just make a prediction?

At the end of the day, just enjoy the matchup because across the other BCS conferences, this will be the only match-up between the two best teams from their respective conference.

Pick:  Ohio State -1.5


NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions (seeds are in parentheses)


Ohio State (1) *
Michigan State (2) *
Wisconsin (4)
Michigan (4)
Indiana (5)
Purdue (7)
Northwestern (bubble officially bursted with their loss to Minnesota in first round)

* The winner of the championship game today will get the one seed with the consolation for the losing team being a two seed.  Obviously I had to make my predictions align with my pick for the game.

March Madness is here!!

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 5 & 6

Game:  Michigan State vs. Iowa
Spread:  Michigan State -11


This is going to be a very intriguing match-up.  The Spartans will take the floor for the first time since losing Branden Dawson to a knee injury in their regular season finale against Ohio State.  I think there are going to be a lot of questions that will be answered during this game.  Michigan State is still in line for a one seed, but it is absolutely dependent on their performance today and throughout the rest of the conference tournament should they win.  Unfortunately for Sparty, the selection committee also considers player availability in determining what seed a team will receive.  A loss today could drop Michigan State to as low as a three seed.

Now, a loss isn't likely, but Iowa is playing with a chip on their shoulder and is coming off a great second half in their first round game versus Illinois.  They turned a seven point deficit into an eight point lead of their own before closing out the Illini for a three point win.  Maybe Iowa is the B1G Cinderella this year.  I think if Aaron White and Melsahn Basabe can at least slow Draymond Green down and Gatens can follow up his 20 point performance yesterday with another big time game, this game could be teetering back and forth up until the final moments.  If this were the regular season and this game were in East Lansing, eleven points would seem like a gimme considering how the Spartans have been playing as of late.  But it's March, this is the B1G Tournament, the game will be played on a neutral court and Iowa has a lot more to gain by winning this game.

Iowa will stick around in this one.  And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they somehow pull the big upset.

Pick:  Iowa +11


Game:  Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Spread:  Indiana -1.5


After the game versus Penn State, you couldn't tell that the Hoosiers were playing for their first post season win since 2006.  They came out firing on all cylinders and didn't even flinch when senior leader and spark off the bench, Verdell Jones III went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury.  Penn State's Tim Frazier looked like he was going to single-handedly make sure the Nittany Lions stayed in this game after scoring 19 points in the first half.  He was then held scoreless in the second half until the 11:23 mark.  If the Hoosiers can show that kind of defensive prowess on Jordan Taylor today, they surely can expect the same result when time runs out.

The problem is, Bo Ryan knows how to get wins in the B1G Tournament.  The Badgers have the fourth best winning percentage in conference tournament play where the Hoosiers have historically struggled.  The key to this game will be whether or not Indiana can get out in transition and find open jump shooters on the perimeter or get easy buckets underneath.  I'm also curious to see how much energy Indiana used in getting their comfortable win against Penn State when I'm sure the emotion after VJIII going down spurred their second half surge.

It will be a tough game for both squads, but I think I'm done being cautiously optimistic with this Hoosier team. They smacked Purdue in the regular season finale and played like a veteran squad yesterday against Penn State.  Facts are facts and the fact is, Indiana is 22-1 in the State of Indiana this season.

Pick:  Indiana -1.5


Blogger's Note:  As of 10:00am the lines for Games 7 & 8 have not opened.  Because of the timing, I will still post my picks for those games later today, but will not be able to provide much analysis within the post.

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 3 & 4

Game:  Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Spread:  Northwestern -2.5


No pressure, Northwestern.  You only have to win this game and probably one more to safely place yourselves into the first NCAA tournament of your program's history.  Your consolation gift should you lose? Probably a #1 seed in the NIT.  This may be the closest the Wildcats have gotten to the tournament, ever.  Based purely on recent history, I would have to say Northwestern is poised to meet Michigan in the quarterfinals. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last ten games, and before beating Nebraska in the regular season finale were in the midst of a six game losing streak.  Northwestern on the other hand, has been ultra competitive in the majority of their B1G games this season.  Five of their losses in conference play were by five points or less which included games at Michigan, at Indiana, home against Purdue and home against Ohio State.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I don't think recent history matters much.  Northwestern and Minnesota split their series during the season, both teams winning at home.  Although Northwestern has statistically had a better season, they have way more pressure on them considering what is at stake.  That could have something to do with the fact that the Wildcats have only gone 6-14 in B1G tournament play.  Out of the four match-ups in the first round I expect this to be the closest and actually think the spread won't budge before game time.  I think the pressure on Northwestern is too much to handle again and is one of those match-ups that I would recommend considering the Minnesota money line based on value.  If Northwestern does win, they barely squeak by.

Pick:  Minnesota +2.5

Game:  Purdue vs. Nebraska
Spread:  Purdue -9.5


Good news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference in their first year in the B1G.  Bad news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference because it gives them a match up with a pissed off Purdue team in the first round of the tournament.  Historically, I would say that it would be hard to find a six seed that is more talented than this years Boilermakers.  That speaks to just how deep the B1G was this year.

Oh and on top of Purdue being a good team, let's look a little deeper at the magic behind being the six seed:

• Aside from the one seed, the six seed has the second best winning percentage in B1G tournament history (68%)
• The six seed has the most combined wins in B1G tournament history (28 wins versus 27 wins combined for the one seed)
• Along with the one seed, the six seed is the only other seed in B1G tournament history to rack up 20+ wins (behind the one and six seeds, the next highest combined win total is 17 by the two seed)
• In the past two years, a six seed has reached the conference championship game.  

This game has mismatch written all over it.  Senior Robbie Hummel won't let this team lose this game.  He won't let it be close.  Too much talent, too much experience.  As much as it pains me to say, Purdue rolls in this one.

Pick:  Purdue -9.5

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 1 & 2

Game:  Illinois vs. Iowa
Spread:  Illinois -2


Both of these teams share the same fate: Win or go to the NIT.  The Illini have enough talent to make a deep run in this tournament.  Especially since they would play a Branden Dawson-less Spartan squad should they beat what I think is a less-talented Hawkeye team.  Here's the catch, more talent doesn't guarantee wins in March. Iowa certainly has some intangible advantages over Illinois.  More senior leadership, they don't have to worry about whether their coach is going to make it through the off-season and they just seem to be playing with the B1G toughness that Illinois has lacked the second half of the season.

This line opened up as a pick two days ago and has since moved to Illinois being a two point favorite.  I know I said that talent doesn't guarantee wins, but maybe Illinois gave up on the regular season.  Maybe they put all of their chips in the B1G tournament. Maybe, just maybe, they want to play to try and save their coach's job.  I think short of winning this tournament, Illinois would have to make a rather deep run in the NIT to make the decision to get rid of Bruce Weber a difficult one.  They may not win the entire tournament, but one more time, I'm taking the Illini to show some signs of life and at least take care of Iowa .

Pick: Illinois -2  (really wish I would have picked this game when the line opened, would have loved to have had Illinois - pk)


Game:  Indiana vs. Penn State
Spread:  Indiana -13.5


Indiana is easily the hottest team in the B1G entering the tournament.  They finished the season winning seven out of their last eight games, including impressive (understatement) wins at home against then #5 Michigan State and arch-rival Purdue.  Any way you slice it, the final two games are probably the best back-to-back performances of their entire season.  Is Indiana peaking at the right time?  It certainly has gotten the attention of some analysts and even CBS's Jim Nantz has publicly chosen Indiana as one of his Final Four teams.

It's easy to forget that this is the same Indiana team that doesn't have a player on its current roster that has won a single post-season game, B1G or otherwise.  I'll admit that as a Hoosier fan, the way the team is playing has me extremely excited to see my alma mater start racking up some post season victories again, but I'm not naive enough to think it will come easy.  Penn State made a B1G championship run just last season, so they know how ruin championship hopes against better teams.  This line opened up with Indiana being 11.5 point favorites.  There's a lot of pressure on this Indiana team that isn't used to anything resembling expectations in March.

Am I predicting an upset?  Absolutely not.  The question that should I should be and am considering is, "Do I think this will be a comfortable win?"  Eh, depends on what you call comfortable.  I don't think this is a one possession game, but this isn't a blow-out waiting to happen.  Maybe I'm trying to hedge my emotions with this pick, but I think the Hoosiers come out flat in the beginning, but find a away to pull out an ugly win.

Pick:  Penn State +13.5

Sunday Funday Pt. III

Game:  Purdue @ Indiana
Spread:  Indiana - 5


Fifth place in the Big Ten is on the line.  Not quite the same stakes as the Michigan State / Ohio State game, but for Hoosier fans, this might as well be for the regular season championship considering where this team has come from in the past three years.  Indiana won by 17 in the previous match-up between these two teams AT Purdue.

Since then, Purdue has been on a roller coaster.  They suspended DJ Byrd and dismissed Kelsey Barlow right before what was their biggest game of the year at home against Michigan State.  What people thought was an emotional effort by the Boilermaker's, who challenged the Spartan's that game, turned out to be anything but a fluke.  Ryne Smith called the dismissal of Kelsey Barlow, "addition by subtraction."  Hindsight may be 20/20, but based on their performances since then, it's hard to argue with that statement.

After the Hoosier's convincing win against the fifth ranked Spartan's, you would think that a five point spread should be easy... it won't be.  It doesn't matter that IU is 17-1 at home with three wins against top five teams.  It doesn't matter that IU won by 17 at Mackey Arena.  It doesn't matter that the Hoosier crowd may be as hype for this game as any game this season.  This is Indiana / Purdue in the last game of the regular season.  Throw any stats you have out the window.  A win at Assembly Hall solidifies Purdue's tournament resume and assuming they can win at least one game in the B1G tournament, it all but guarantees them a spot in the Big Dance.  It won't be hard for either team to get up for this game I can promise you that.

Something that many people may not know:  Purdue leads the overall series with Indiana 112 to 86.  Indiana probably had the better team in terms of rankings and / or statistically speaking in many of those wins, but like I said above: It doesn't matter.

I'm not going to sit here and spew out stats, mainly because I would require a book deal to go into that much detail.  This is one of the best college basketball rivalries in the country and having grown up watching many classic battles I know what's going to happen come 6pm.  The basketball game that will ensue in Bloomington tomorrow will be the epitome of Big Ten basketball.  Bodies will be flying, elbows will be thrown and emotion will be high.  Indiana is 23-7, Purdue is 20-10 ... Indiana is over achieving, Purdue is under achieving ... but you know what?  It doesn't matter.  Tomorrow's match-up between the Hoosiers and Boilermaker's will be what college basketball is all about.

Pick:  Purdue +5

Sunday Funday Pt. II

Game:  Ohio State @ Michigan State

Spread:  Michigan State -2.5

There's a lot at stake in this game.  Not only is the Big Ten regular season championship up for grabs, but I think the B1G POY will be decided in this game as well.  If Draymond Green and Jared Sullinger exchange blows all game, then it belongs to Green.  If, somehow Sullinger dominates this game and Green struggles, it won't be so clear as to who ends up with the hardware.  When you look at the first match-up between these two teams a couple things stand out to me:

• William Buford and Aaron Craft shot poorly (combined they were 4 for 24 shooting)
• Michigan State's depth won that game

Ohio State's starting five is one of the best starting groups in the country.  The Buckeye's problem?  Their depth.  In the game against Michigan State look at the minutes logged by their starter's:

• Willam Buford:  36 minutes
• Aaron Craft:  40 minutes
• Deshaun Thomas:  32 minutes
• Lorenzo Smith, Jr.:  30 minutes
• Jared Sullinger:  40 minutes

A total of seven Buckeye's played that game while Sparty rotated ten players.  When you look at OSU's schedule, Michigan State is the only team that has been able to produce a second string that could still compete against their starter's (I would expect an argument to this statement to be Duke ... look at their roster, outside of interchanging Plumlee's they don't have many options).  Because Ohio State is forced to play their starter's so much (out of 200 minutes, their starter's have averaged 147.9 minutes per game this season), there has to be concerns about their conditioning this late in the season.  Maybe Ohio State can use the excuse that they just didn't want to share a championship with Michigan once this game is over.  I think the first half will be close, but I do expect Michigan State's abundance of depth on the road to be too much for the Buckeye's to handle.

Pick:  Michigan State -2.5

Sunday Funday Pt. I

Well I think it's abundantly clear that I should just stay away from picking NBA games.  I guess you could say it's for professionals, and I'm certainly the furthest thing from that.  Hopefully I can rebound from my NBA slide and keep the heater alive in college basketball.

In this series of posts, I'm going to pick every Big Ten game (four games) in preparation for the conference tournament.  Just to give my reader's a heads up, I do plan on picking every single game of the Big Ten tournament.  There is still seeding yet to be determined based on the outcomes of the games tomorrow, so I expect some extremely entertaining games tomorrow.

Game:  Michigan @ Penn State
Spread:  Michigan -5.5


Michigan has an outside chance to earn a share of the regular season Big Ten championship if they can take care of business on the road and with a little bit of help from, ironically, Ohio State (will be discussed later on). Tim Hardaway, Jr. may have found his swagger after coming off of his best performance of the season at Illinois, scoring 26 points on an amazingly efficient 6 of 7 shooting (4 of 4 from beyond the arc; 9 of 10 from the charity stripe).  I think Inside the Hall founder / writer Alex Bozich said it best on twitter when he said that when Hardaway plays with that kind of confidence, "Michigan goes from good to scary."  This is purely based on position by position match-ups and the fact that Penn State's home court advantage is negligible, or possibly non-existent.

Pick:  Michigan -5.5


Game:  Illinois @ Wisconsin
Spread:  Wisconsin -10.5


Here's the deal, the Illini have a lot of talent and when they play as a team, they're one of the best teams in the conference.  You don't beat both Ohio State and Michigan State without having some talented players.  At this point, Illinois seems to be playing for themselves as Bruce Weber all but fired himself during the Purdue post game conference five games ago.  Remember Penn State's run in the Big Ten tournament last year?  I think this Illini team has that kind of run in them.  Also, compared to the last couple of years, Wisconsin has been "human" at home this season with four losses(also only had a 5 point win at home against lowly Nebraska).  Now I'm not trying to predict an Illinois upset at the Kohl Center, but I do think that Illinois can start to build some momentum heading into the conference tourney by having a competitive game on the road.

Pick:  Illinois +10.5

Blogger's Note: This has nothing to do with my analysis, but if you're Meyers Leonard, or even one of his teammates, how could you not play inspired after the surprise Leonard received after a practice last week.  If you're unfamiliar with Meyers Leonard or his story, I highly recommend you read the piece that was written on him in early January.

'Heat' Check

Game:  Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Spread:  Miami -4.5


I guess Vegas just thinks they have to struggle at some point.  In the last ten games, the Heat are 8-2 against the spread.  Out of those ten games, seven of them were on the road. Out of those seven road games, they were 6-1 against the spread.  Their only loss?  At Orlando, ten games ago.

I admit I was a little skeptical last night at Portland, without Chris Bosh.  They looked better than ever.  Lebron James guarded all five positions and combined, LBJ and DWade scored 71 points on 25 of 45 shooting.  Just re-read that last sentence.  And again.

Moral of the story?  Don't doubt the Heat, just go with it.  I don't care if this is on the road and the second night of a back-to-back.  Need I remind you that in February; in their fifth road game in a row; their third road game in three days; favored by only two points at Indiana ... they won by fifteen.  That may not sound impressive, but they were up by 30+ in the third quarter and LBJ / DWade didn't play hardly at all in the fourth quarter.  This is not a normal team.  As long as Vegas keeps throwing lines like this against mediocre teams, I'll take it.

Pick:  Miami -4.5


Game:  Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets
Spread:  Dallas -6.5


Quick, who is the starting five for the Hornets?  Outside of Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman, I couldn't have answered that question myself without looking it up.  The only reason I knew of Gordon and Kaman is because of the Chris Paul trade.  Gordon has missed all but two games this season with knee problems and without him the Hornets can't really compete with that many teams.

Dallas on the other hand, seems to have hit their stride as of late.  The veteran laden team took a couple of weeks to catch up with the season, starting the season 0-5.  Since that horrendous start, they have gone 21-10 and currently hold the fifth seed in the Western Conference.  This is a team that took advantage of every second of the All-Star break to recuperate in preparation for the second half push.  This is a perfect game and opponent for them to gain some confidence as well as momentum as they look to prove they can at least contend for a repeat.  I think this will be a sweat to cover, but I think Dirk gets them there in the fourth.

Pick:  Dallas -6.5


Blogger's Note:  As I was writing this post, the line for the Dallas / NO game moved to Dallas -7.  The half point doesn't concern me with this particular match-up.  Definitely get it before it moves to Dallas -7.5, because I think that's where the line will end up.

Back on the NBA Wagon

Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers
Opening Spread: Miami -5
Current Spread (as of 6:00pm): Miami -3.5

I know I gave the teaser earlier that I may be picking two NBA lines. There was the caveat that any late line movement would detour me from making the second pick. Cue Chris Bosh. Since the Heat made the announcement that Bosh wouldn't be with the team for at least the next couple of games due to a death in the family, the line has moved over a point. Now I just don't know what to think about that game. Sure the Heat still have Lebron and DWade, but who is going to slow down LaMarcus Aldridge? Don't say Joel Anthony. He's a low post defender that specializes in help defense around the rim. Put him 16ft+ away from the basket with Aldridge facing him up and he's out on an island.

Now I'll admit that my forte isn't NBA, but even Charles Barkley could see that there's going to be match up issues on both sides of the court in that game. For that reason, I consider the Heat versus Trail Blazer's a stay away. If you don't feel good about one side or the other that's enough reason to just walk away and not waste your time or risk your money.

Oklahoma City @ Orlando Magic
Spread: Oklahoma City -1


Oklahoma City has the best scoring duo in the NBA right now. I challenge any of the readers / followers to comment on this post to give me a better duo. I'm certainly playing the odds with that challenge. It's a win / win for me. Let's explore the possibilities:

1. Either I'll get some comment activity on this blog, which is something I wouldn't mind happening, or;
2. No one will comment which will make it look like I made a valid point. Full disclosure, out of 12 posts there has only been two total posts (shout out to my dude @OneTwentyFour for those too)

So to the 10's of readers that follow this blog right now, challenge issued. Challenge my opinion or risk my ego growing just a little bit more.

Now, back to the game. On the other side of the ball, you have a Dwight Howard that was probably playing with 80% effort prior to the All-Star weekend. He was still putting up monster numbers which is really scary. With the trade deadline approaching in the next couple of weeks, I'm curious to see the effort that he puts into these games. It seems as though in these kinds of situations in the NBA, more than any other professional sport, player's seem to have some lackluster performances leading up to their expected departure from a team (i.e., Lebron's last playoff series with Cleveland).

Fact, team's don't play all that well with a distraction, especially a 7'0'' 270lb franchise altering distraction.

Regardless of what Howard we see tonight, the Thunder are going to be running up and down the court often. The Magic are more of a half court team and probably won't respond well to that style of play. Even though the Thunder are on the road, the way that they have been playing, as well as how hot Durant / Westbrook continued to be through the All-Star Game; there's only a few teams that can threaten their momentum ... and the Magic is not one of those teams. The Thunder Roll(s) .. see what I did there?

Pick: Oklahoma City -1