B1G Tournament Picks: Games 3 & 4

Game:  Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Spread:  Northwestern -2.5


No pressure, Northwestern.  You only have to win this game and probably one more to safely place yourselves into the first NCAA tournament of your program's history.  Your consolation gift should you lose? Probably a #1 seed in the NIT.  This may be the closest the Wildcats have gotten to the tournament, ever.  Based purely on recent history, I would have to say Northwestern is poised to meet Michigan in the quarterfinals. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last ten games, and before beating Nebraska in the regular season finale were in the midst of a six game losing streak.  Northwestern on the other hand, has been ultra competitive in the majority of their B1G games this season.  Five of their losses in conference play were by five points or less which included games at Michigan, at Indiana, home against Purdue and home against Ohio State.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I don't think recent history matters much.  Northwestern and Minnesota split their series during the season, both teams winning at home.  Although Northwestern has statistically had a better season, they have way more pressure on them considering what is at stake.  That could have something to do with the fact that the Wildcats have only gone 6-14 in B1G tournament play.  Out of the four match-ups in the first round I expect this to be the closest and actually think the spread won't budge before game time.  I think the pressure on Northwestern is too much to handle again and is one of those match-ups that I would recommend considering the Minnesota money line based on value.  If Northwestern does win, they barely squeak by.

Pick:  Minnesota +2.5

Game:  Purdue vs. Nebraska
Spread:  Purdue -9.5


Good news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference in their first year in the B1G.  Bad news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference because it gives them a match up with a pissed off Purdue team in the first round of the tournament.  Historically, I would say that it would be hard to find a six seed that is more talented than this years Boilermakers.  That speaks to just how deep the B1G was this year.

Oh and on top of Purdue being a good team, let's look a little deeper at the magic behind being the six seed:

• Aside from the one seed, the six seed has the second best winning percentage in B1G tournament history (68%)
• The six seed has the most combined wins in B1G tournament history (28 wins versus 27 wins combined for the one seed)
• Along with the one seed, the six seed is the only other seed in B1G tournament history to rack up 20+ wins (behind the one and six seeds, the next highest combined win total is 17 by the two seed)
• In the past two years, a six seed has reached the conference championship game.  

This game has mismatch written all over it.  Senior Robbie Hummel won't let this team lose this game.  He won't let it be close.  Too much talent, too much experience.  As much as it pains me to say, Purdue rolls in this one.

Pick:  Purdue -9.5