MLB Futures

In honor of pitchers and catchers reporting this weekend, I thought my first post would be on my favorite type of bet for my favorite sport: MLB futures.  As of today, the odds for teams to win the World Series are as follows:

Philadelphia Phillies          6/1        Washington Nationals          28/1       San Diego Padres       90/1

Los Angeles Angels         13/2       Colorado Rockies              35/1        Seattle Mariners         90/1

New York Yankees        7/1          Milwaukee Brewers            35/1       Baltimore Orioles      150/1

Detroit Tigers                  8/1          Chicago Cubs                     40/1       Houston Astros         150/1

Texas Rangers                10/1         Los Angeles Dodgers         40/1

Boston Red Sox             12/1         Toronto Blue Jays              40/1

Florida Marlins               15/1         Chicago White Sox            60/1

San Francisco Giants      16/1         Cleveland Indians               65/1

Cincinnati Reds              22/1          Minnesota Twins                65/1
St. Louis Cardinals         22/1         Oakland Athletics               65/1
Tampa Bay Rays            22/1         Kansas City Royals            70/1
Arizona Diamondbacks  25/1          New York Mets                 75/1
Atlanta Braves               25/1          Pittsburgh Pirates                75/1

Deep Sleeper
At 75/1 and on the verge of acquiring the erratic very inconsistent AJ Burnett from the Yankees, the Pittsburgh Pirates were a surprise team in 2010.  Having made no other significant changes during the off-season, this is the same team that challenged the NL Central through 100 games.  They still haven't finished a season above .500 in 19 seasons, but with exit of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the NL Central, an always competitive division is as wide open as it has ever been.  When I talk about a deep deep sleeper in terms of futures, why not pick one, put $5 on it and let it ride.  In the MLB, there's always a breakout team no one saw coming (i.e., Tampa Bay starting 3 years ago, any of the Florida Marlins teams that made deep runs) and in 2012, why not Pittsburgh?

Realistic Sleeper
Staying in the NL Central, one of the busiest teams in the entire MLB this off-season is primed for a deep run.  The Cincinnati Reds raided their farm system to acquire former San Diego Padres ace Mat Latos.  Dubbed as the second best free agent acquisition by ESPN's Jayson Stark, snagging RP Ryan Madson solidifies their bull pen with Aroldis Chapman expected to start the season in the starting rotation.  Last, but not least, they also added lefty MRP Sean Marshall.  The Reds may have just created the best lefty / righty match-up bullpen in the NL, as well as, possibly stumbling upon a top 3 starting rotation, from top to bottom.  All of this in a division with no Pujols, Fielder, and Braun (for the first 50 games).  On paper, this appears to be one of the most complete teams in the NL (still no Philadelphia).  Anything can happen in a short series and if they make the playoffs this could be a match-up that no team wants to see in October.

Best Value
I define best value when it comes to futures by comparing "implied' versus "actual" odds.  Based on my knowledge of the sport, when I look at the odds above, I would say that any team with odds smaller than 25/1 don't have a realistic chance at making a run. Just by drawing that line in the sand, cuts the field of potential teams to bet on from 30 to 13.  This is where "implied" odds comes into play.  By ignoring teams you have a strong feeling won't even make the playoffs, you've just increased your "implied" odds from 1/30 to 1/13.  The value I find is when the "actual" odds (the Vegas odds listed above) are greater than the "implied" odds.  Based on that definition, I begin to see value with the Florida Marlins (15/1).  As a result, the best value for my money (hypothetically), lies with either the Atlanta Braves or the Arizona Diamondbacks.  And what do you know, I end up with two 2011 playoff teams.

One thing to remember: there is a big difference between a value bet and taking one of the favorites.  This is just how I look at the numbers to figure out where the value is for me.  The beauty about the MLB season is there's plenty of time to hedge your future's bets.  That's another post, another time.  Hope you enjoyed my mini baseball preview, along with how I determine where I can find value in futures.