Cross Country Picks

To prepare myself for March Madness, I decided I would try to hone my skills on researching teams from other conferences.  In this post, I will pick a game from each of the major conferences.  The beauty of sports betting is that it isn't an exact science.  My goal is just to lay out what information I would consider, to help make an informed decision on what side to take.  I will continue to remind reader's that I'm not trying to pass myself off as any kind of handicapper.  In fact, I would say that I am more like the Kevin Malone of sports betting.   With that being said, here are my cross country picks:

Big Ten

Game:  Nebraska @ Michigan St., 8:00 pm EST

Spread:  Michigan St. -19

There aren't many coaches you would  rather have coaching your team this time of year than Tom Izzo.  His team has the Big Ten regular season championship in their sights and don't think he's going to let his team take a game off against the lowly Cornhuskers.  Nebraska has struggled in their first year in the conference with a 4-11 record to date.  In their 11 loses their
average margin of defeat is 15.5 points and when they faced off against the Spartans at home on 12/31 they lost by 13.  Fast forward two months and the Spartans are a much better team, and well, the Huskers are not.  I expect this to be an old fashioned route.

Pick:  Michigan St. -19

SEC

Game:  Vanderbilt @ Kentucky, 12:00 pm EST

Spread:  Kentucky -12

How do you score against the nation's best defender in Anthony Davis?  Answer, avoid him and make jump shots.  There isn't a better combination of players in the SEC that are better at doing that than John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor, the conferences #1 and #4 scorers respectively.  When you have two players that combine for over 35 points a game, you can keep any game close.  Kentucky has been getting challenged lately by lesser opponents and it has me wondering if some of the freshman are catching the exhaustion bug caused by the grind of a long conference season.  I don't expect Kentucky to lose this game, but I do expect the Wildcats inexperience coupled with Vanderbilt's upperclassmen leadership to keep this fairly close.

Pick:  Vanderbilt +12

Big 12

Game:  Iowa St. @ Kansas St., 1:45 pm EST

Spread:  Kansas St. -7

This is a situation for Kansas St. to follow up back to back big road wins against top ten teams in Baylor and Missouri with a let down performance at home against a good Iowa St. team.  Iowa St. has also come off of back to back wins of their own, but they came easy at home against teams in the bottom half of the conference.  I would expect Iowa St. to come in to this game with more energy and put Kansas St. down early.  Honestly, picking the Iowa St. moneyline with this match-up is something to consider.

Pick:  Iowa St. +7

ACC

Game:  North Carolina St. @ Clemson, 2:30 pm EST

Spread:  Clemson -4.5

Coming off of three straight competitive losses to the top teams in the conference, NC State is sitting squarely on the bubble and in desperate need to get back on track.  They are one of the most balanced offenses in the conference with all five of their starters averaging double digit points per game.  Additionally, all five of their starters average at least 43% from the field with three of them averaging better than 50%.  Another stat that stands out to me is the fact that the Wolfpack average over 16 assists per game which is good for 11th in the country.  I'll admit that this is one of those picks that is based primarily on a gut feeling.  I'll take a team that is as athletic as any team in the country, that is as balanced offensively as they come and that is hungry for a win against a mediocre team on a gut feeling any day.

Pick:  North Carolina St. +4.5

Big East

Game:  Syracuse @ UCONN, 9:00 pm EST

Spread:  Syracuse -3.5

There isn't much to say.  UCONN has been a completely different team since Coach Jim Calhoun has been sidelined with back issues that has ultimately required him to have surgery and take an indefinite leave of absence.  The Huskies are 3-3 without their legendary coach with their only wins coming against 4-11 Villanova (needed a last second shot in OT to pull it out), 2-13 Depaul and decent win against 8-8 Seton Hall.  Their three losses were against the top teams in the conference with an average margin of defeat of 18 points.  Jim Boeheim's game plan versus an interim coaches game plan regardless of talent and home court advantage is worth 3.5 points.

Pick:  Syracuse -3.5

Pac 10

Game:  UCLA @ Arizona, 2:00 pm EST

Spread:  Arizona -4

There are certain games that you just don't forget about regardless of how early in the season those games occurred.  The Bruins started off the season 0-2 ... at home ... against Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee.  That's right the UCLA Bruins ... lost to ... Loyola Marymount ... AND ... Middle Tennessee.  They have been extremely inconsistent all season.  They haven't had a winning streak in conference play longer than two games.  Arizona has been hot as of late winning six out of their last seven games.  In this instance I'm going to take the more consistent team on their home court.

Pick:  Arizona -4


I certainly don't claim to be a know-it-all when it comes to basketball.  The above is just how I view the games based on looking into the match-ups and doing some high level review of their seasons to date.  But, if I end up going 6-0, I retract my previous statement and will probably start charging you to read my posts.

If I were a betting man, I wouldn't worry about me going 6-0.  Enjoy your Saturday!