I'll be honest, after I looked at some of the power rankings made by several ESPN insiders last week, I realized that I knew nothing about college basketball outside of the Big Ten. Wichita State and Drexel were in several of their rankings and it made no sense to me. Because of that fact, for the remainder of the CBB season, you will probably only see posts discussing B1G games. Once the "Big Dance" comes around I'll have some homework to do on teams from other conferences to gain a better understanding of the match-ups.
The first college game I'm going to look at on this blog is Michigan at Northwestern. Currently the Wildcats are a 1.5 point favorite and are coming off win in a must-win at home against Minnesota. Northwestern is still searching for their first NCAA tournament bid in their program's history and another win at home against the 11th ranked Wolverines would certainly give the selection committee something to think about.
On the other side, Michigan is peaking at the right time. Since losing by 15 at Ohio State (ranked 10th at the time) just over three weeks ago, the Wolverines have won four out of five culminating in a revenge win against those same Buckeyes (ranked 6th for the rematch). Although they are lead by freshman guard sensation Trey Burke, who has averaged over 14 points and 4 assists over the past 5 games, Michigan seems to go as their three point efficiency goes. Here's a look at their three point shooting in their four conference losses versus their last four conference wins:
In their four conference losses it seems as though that when they get down they rely heavily on the three to get back in the game. This is the definition of a team that lives and dies by the three. When they can't hit from beyond the arc they're in a lot of trouble. In the 2/18/2012 match-up versus Ohio State, they didn't shoot well from three, but countered that with their ability to get in the lane and create shots off of dribble penetration. Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to effectively defend Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. so I would expect this to be a game where they take advantage of their ability to break down their defenders. I'm expecting fewer 3PA as a percentage of their FGA, but also expect the majority of their 3PA they do get off to be wide open based on Northwestern's defense having to collapse once Michigan's guards find their way into the paint.
I'm focusing my attention in this post on Michigan because you know what you're going to get with Northwestern. John Shurna is going to get his points as the offense goes through him whenever he is on the court. As long as Michigan can disrupt Drew Crawford and Dave Sobolewski, the Wildcats won't have the fire power to keep up with the Wolverines. This is a different Michigan team that Northwestern will be facing compared to the team that allowed the Wildcats to take them into overtime in Ann Arbor. They're coming off their biggest win of the season against Ohio State and have the confidence and swagger that makes them an extremely difficult match-up for anyone in the Big Ten.
Before giving my pick, I wanted to share both Michigan and Northwestern's record against the spread:
Along with all of my thoughts above, Northwestern's weak record at home against the spread has all but forced me to take Michigan and the points. I would even contemplate buying a 1/2 point. Not because Michigan sometimes struggles on the road, but because it allows for the opportunity (albeit small) for a push.
Decision: Michigan +2 (buy 1/2 point)
Better Value: With the spread already being small, because I like Michigan, I also would consider taking the Michigan moneyline (+115). Taking this bet limits my risk with the opportunity to achieve the same payout as betting the spread.
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