Picks in Review: Indiana Sweep

Pick:  Indiana +2

Results:  Indiana 70 - 55 Michigan State (W)


Pick:  Butler -11

Results:  Butler 70 - 52 Wright State (W)


Inside Assembly Hall, Indiana is the best team in the country.  For the first time in the program's illustrious history, the Hoosiers have beaten three top five teams in the same season.  They out-rebounded, out-hustled and flat out-played Sparty for forty minutes tonight.  They had no answer for All-American Draymond Green, who may have just solidified his Big Ten POY bid, but no one else decided to show up for Michigan State. Green had 29 points on 10-17 shooting while the remainder of the Spartans had just 26 points on 10-34 shooting.

How did Indiana do it?  Behind freshman Cody Zeller, who himself, may have just ensured his receipt of the Big Ten's Freshman POY award with his performance tonight (18 points on an efficient 7-12 shooting).  You also can't discount Christian Watford's grit; from a banked in three pointer when the Hoosiers needed a bucket to setting a career high in rebounds at 14 (previously 11).  The upperclassman's energy was contagious tonight, or maybe it was the crowd's energy that sparked Indiana's play.

Whatever the case may be, the Hoosiers avenged a fifteen point loss at Michigan State on 12/28 with a fifteen point win of their own.  With the Big Ten tournament just around the corner, in what is sure to be a Hoosier fan filled Banker's Life Fieldhouse (took me reviewing this post four times to realize I had "Conseco" written), Indiana has just as good of a shot as any team to make a championship run.

Before then, hopefully the Hoosiers can keep the home magic alive against arch-rival Purdue this Sunday.  Regardless of the outcome of this game against a top five team, Purdue will have it's tournament life on the line on top of their desire to avenge a home loss to Indiana earlier in the season.

Welcome to March, readers!

You Can Call Me a Homer ...

For those of you who don't know me outside of the posts you've been reading, I would classify myself as a die hard Indiana Hoosier fan.  For those of you that do know me, what you probably don't know is that when it comes to making picks on games that involve the Hoosiers, I actually am pretty unbiased.  "TheRealLINsanity" and "Kramer" can tell you that I use my knowledge of my favorite team and the Big Ten conference as a whole to analyze a given match-up while leaving all emotion aside.

If I could give one piece of advice to any sports better or want to be sports better out there, it would be this:  Don't bet on emotion.  If you have a favorite team, unless you're positive you can make a pick without factoring in your desired outcome of the game, don't bet any of their games.  Sure you may get lucky here in there, but I promise in the long run you're going to get burned.

One of the reasons I haven't picked a Hoosier game to date on the blog is because of my perceived bias towards them as most of the follower's know where my fandom lies.  At some point, I was going to give in, so here we go.

The Assembly Hall has proven it's worth this season as the Hoosiers have upset #1 Kentucky (their only loss this season), #2 Ohio State and #13 Michigan within a three week period earlier this season.  The Hoosiers are 11-3 this season at home against the spread; 4-3 in conference play.  Michigan State is 4-4 in conference play on the road this season; their straight up record in the four games they didn't cover is 1-3.  Yes, Michigan State is hot, yes they're on a seven game winning streak, but they haven't experienced an atmosphere like Assembly Hall this season.  There isn't another conference in the country where the home court advantage plays a bigger role than in the Big Ten.   Oh and it doesn't hurt that the Hoosiers are hitting 49% of their field goals and 42% of their three point field goals this season at home.

It's going to be close from start to finish and has all the makings to be a classic.  It's hard not to take the home team when they're getting points, with one of the best home court advantages in the country as an ace up their sleeve.  I think you all know where I'm going with this, so go ahead and call me a homer if you want...

Spread:  Michigan St. -2
Pick:  Indiana +2


Extra Pick


Let's keep this in state.  With a three seed in the Horizon League still up for grabs against a team Butler has already beaten twice, this is the perfect opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain momentum heading into the post season.  It is in games like these that Butler's coach Brad Stevens has made a living off of making statements in.  Before the loss at Valparaiso, Butler was on a five game winning streak which included a road win against a good Cleveland State team and home blow out against an even better Missouri Valley Conference team in Indiana State.  Time for Butler to get back on track in what I expect to be a convincing win in Hinkle Fieldhouse that reminds the Horizon League that the road to the Big Dance still goes through them.

Spread:   Butler -11
Pick:   Butler -11


Blogger's Note:  We're in the process of figuring out the logistics of creating a podcast for this blog.  If we can make it happen, we're hoping to have our first episode up sometime during the Big Ten tournament at the earliest and right before March Madness at the latest.  We have no idea what we want to title the podcast at this point so if you have any suggestions leave a comment on this post or send me a tweet @HoosierSully16.  If there is more than one option we like, we'll add a poll to the site and let the reader's decide.  Help us out!

West Palm Beach Main Event

Today was the $1,600 buyin main event here in West Palm Beach.  There is two starting flights for this event, Day 1a 11:00am start and Day 1b 7:00pm start.  This tournament has such a good structure with 20,000 in starting chips.  I have not done well in this tournament in the past, only having one min-cash in it in Louisville.  I decided to play Day 1a, and registered around 12:00pm.

Hand 1

I played the first few levels fairly tight, not winning any pots, but also not losing many chips.  Then at the 150/300 level I still hadn't won a pot and was down to around 13,000 chips. 

With the blinds at 150/300 I raised to 650 in late position with Js7s.  The big blind flats, as expected he never folded, and the flop is Jh6s6d.  He checks and I decide to check behind.  In this spot I'm sure I have to best hand, but at this point I don't think I will ever get three streets of value from a worse hand.  The turn is the 9s.  This is a good card for me as it gives me a backdoor flush draw and I already have top pair.  He leads for 1,100.  I decide to call as there isn't any point in raising as he will fold all nines and call with every hand that has me beat.  The river is the As and he checks.  This is a good and bad card for me.  It is good for me because it completes my flush, but it is also an overcard to his hand, his most likely holding being a nine.  It is going to be hard for me to get him to pay me off at this point.  I decide to bet 1,300 fully expecting him to fold.  Well he snap calls and I win my first pot of the tournament!

Hand 2

The next hand took place at the 300/600 level.  I started this hand with around 14,000 in chips.  The guy under the gun limps for 600 and it's folded to me on the button.  I have 3h4h and limp, the small blind limps and the big blind checks.  The flop is the KsKh3c.  Check, check, check to me and I decide I'm checking behind and basically letting whoever wants it on the turn to take it.  However, the turn is the 2s and they all check again.  This time I decide it's very likely I have the best hand so I bet 1,600.  The small blind folds and the big blind raises to 3,400 getting the UTG limper to fold.  I can fold right here and let him run me over, but I just didn't feel like he had a hand so I call.  The river is the 6c, he bets 4,400 immediately, I konw he is weak, I snap, he mucks.  Now we are over 20,000 chips for the first time all tournament!

Hand 3

The one thing you want to avoid in tournament poker is being on the wrong end of a "set over set" situation.  If you are on the right end it is going to be very profittable, but the wrong side is going to break you every time as you will see here. 

The blinds are now 400/800, the last level of the day before bagging up and playing Day 2 the following day.  A guy raises to 1,600 in early position and I call with 9s9d.  The small blind and big blind both call.  Taking the flop 4 ways I am basically trying to flop a 9 or I am done with the hand.  The flop is the Ad9c5d!  This is one of the best flops for my hand especially when the original raiser bets 3,200 on the flop.  He most likely is holding A10-AK or complete air.  I decide to play my hand fast and I raise to 8,300 on the flop.  Both the small blind and big blind get out of the way.  The original raiser has me covered and moves in, I call and he shows me the only hand I don't him to show me, AsAc!  Sigh, good game, eventually I will run good in one of the big ones.

So you think you wanna bet sports eh?

A LITTLE HISTORY...

For you that decide to follow this blog one of my best friends decided to create, let me give you a little insight on myself before i post my first article on Sully'sBasementGame.

My name is Chris Lindley, blogger name "TheRealLinsanity" ( will elaborate on that later ). I am almost 27 years old and have been around gambling and sports betting for going on 6 years now. I started playing poker at around age 18, and im still terrible. At times, consuming rediculous amounts of alcohol at times and making "props" ( my next blog will be on the Tim Tebow prop i made with two friends that i have a total of $1,000 on the line.) I've lived the highs, the lows in my early 20's, having 5-7 times the amount of money on the line in one night then i had to my name, and also leaving local poker games with $500-$1000 in my pocket and head back to my college apartment on campus. Most normal students would relax between classes, grab lunch, possibly even study. However, the crew i ran around with would jump over to the local $3-$6 limit hold em games with folks that could be our grandparents that took us youngsters in. The classes, 3-6 games and putting on the line money I dont have are behind me now. I graduated in 2008, and began working immediately out of college for a Windpower company that gave me the freedom to travel, work, and play hard when i got the chance. Furthermore, it gave me access to amounts of money that, to be honest, scared me more than anything For the last 3 years however, i managed my money pretty well, still went on some last minute casino trips, played in some decent size cash games, and also bet my fair share of sports.

I now reside in Indianapolis, where i took a position working for a contractor at Eli Lilly and got a place to myself for atleast 10 months or so. I plan on being here for a good while, and recently having been putting some small wagers in on some College Basketball games on a nightly basis.

 So this is where the blog begins, So you think you wanna bet sports eh?

THE BACKDOOR COVER.....

If you bet sports long enough, you will see it all, from the miracle covers, blow out no sweat wins, back and forth battles that keep you betting over and over, last second shots to lose a bet, missed free throws in the waining minutes to seal what looked to be a locked bet, scoring draughts and runs you never thought possible, and what they like to call a "backdoor cover". Here is how it is explained in basic terms.

"In sports betting, a back door cover occurs when the team you wagered on covers the spread in the last minutes of the game. Often times this happens when the actual game is a blow out, yet the spread or line of the game is still at play." Such as...

"The Giants kicked a late field goal to give me a back door cover. They lost by 10, but covered the 12 point spread."

Recently, I suffered one of the worst backdoor covers ( ended up being a push, but still ) that i have seen in a good while. The matchup linked a badly struggling Illinois club on the road versus a Ohio State team who had lost 2/3 coming in and still has yet to prove to me they are a top 5 ball club by any means. However, the Illini topped the Buckeyes in Champaign a few weeks prior but had lost 8/9 since, and i felt this game everything added up right for Ohio State to begin to gel for a tourny run, get revenge, and send Illinois tourny hopes out the door along with Bruce Weber's job.

The spread was Ohio State -15.5 an hour or so before tip and moved to -16 a little bit before tip. Using the closing line, i got the spread at -16, and i would need every bit of it.

Ohio State came out of the gate firing on all cylinders, starting 16-20 from the field and building up what looked to be an insurmountable lead of 40-18 a few minutes before half. However, the Illini finished the final 3 minutes on an 8-2 run to close the game to 42-26 at half time, just enought to make me think this backdoor cover was possible. So here it is, a 16 point lead at halftime as a 16 point favorite. Does that mean they will cover? Hell no. Does it mean they will even win? Not always. However, the buckeyes were dominating the game in all phases and all they needed to do was "win" the second half and i couldn't lose my bet. The buckeyes quickly got the lead back to 21 with 15 min or so to go in the 2nd half, the lead fluctuated between 17-22 for the middle of the half then OSU got it to 24 with 3 minutes remaining. This made me feel comfortable, an 8 point cushion on the spread with less than 3 minutes to go and a 35 second shot clock, this game should be wrapped up. A few buckets were exchanged for a minute, then enters the Ohio State bench. I understand they have been sitting on the bench, BUT you have a scholarship to play basketball at Ohio State, which in turn, means you should be able to inbound the ball, dribble, and make passes to your teammates. I thought wrong. with 1:18 remaining, the buckeyes led by 23, a few possessions, let Illinois do whatever, then dribble the clock out right? Not this time...Let me break down the play by play for you for the final 1:18 AND Ohio State has the ball. 82-59. AND ILLINOIS PUTS A PRESS ON IN THE BACKCOURT WITH THEIR BENCH PLAYERS??? WTTTFF IS GOING ON

1:18: Ohio State inbounds pass stolen by Illinois and a foul. Makes both ( 82-61 )

1:11; Weatherspoon dribbles up court, passes it to the wing, directly to an Illinois player who gets a breakaway dunk. ( 82-63 ) Lead down to 19 with 1:05 remaining, in case you didn't catch that, there was 4 Illinois points in 13 seconds off of immediate turnovers ( Note: all they have to do is secure the ball and its over )

0:53: Ohio State takes jumpes 12 seconds into shot clock, misses, gets offensive rebound and gets fouled. Makes 1/2 Free Throws of course ( the one he missed would matter, alot ). 83-63 with 0.47sec to play.

0.40: Illinois misses jumper, gets offensive rebound, and lays it back in. 83-65 with 34 sec left.

Here is where it gets completely stupid. 34 seconds left, up by 18 with a 35 second shot clock. In 99% of games you will watch in college basketball, if there is less than 35 seconds left, and the team who has the ball is up by a insurmountable margin, showing respect for the other team, they get past half court, dribble the ball out, shake hands and the game is over. Not this time...Illinois still has the press on ( YES down by 18 with 34 seconds left ), Ohio State gets the ball in bounds, immediately turns it over and Illinois makes a quick layup with 30 seconds left to make it a 83-67 game. Ohio State in bounds, NOW they stop pressing, dribble the clock out, game over. Unbelieavable? Believe it....

If you would like to view the play by play yourself visit. http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=320520194&period=2

I will make this bet to anyone who reads this article: For the rest of the season, and through next year. if you see a game where a favorite is covering any spread by 8 points with 1:18 to go and does not cover or pushes, you can have an all inclusive night on the town in INDY with my drunken degenerate friends, all drinks and strip club activities paid for.

In conclusion, i know this was a long article and kind of drawn out, but it was my first, had to knock some rust off. I will post frequently as i have all kinds of crazy props active, PGA Tour Season upon us, MLB almost underway, and March Madness.

   

Cross Country Picks

To prepare myself for March Madness, I decided I would try to hone my skills on researching teams from other conferences.  In this post, I will pick a game from each of the major conferences.  The beauty of sports betting is that it isn't an exact science.  My goal is just to lay out what information I would consider, to help make an informed decision on what side to take.  I will continue to remind reader's that I'm not trying to pass myself off as any kind of handicapper.  In fact, I would say that I am more like the Kevin Malone of sports betting.   With that being said, here are my cross country picks:

Big Ten

Game:  Nebraska @ Michigan St., 8:00 pm EST

Spread:  Michigan St. -19

There aren't many coaches you would  rather have coaching your team this time of year than Tom Izzo.  His team has the Big Ten regular season championship in their sights and don't think he's going to let his team take a game off against the lowly Cornhuskers.  Nebraska has struggled in their first year in the conference with a 4-11 record to date.  In their 11 loses their

Pick in Review: Knicks v Heat

Wait, what?  No, you should never get back-doored in the NBA ...




Pick:  Heat -5.0 (first half line)

Result:  Miami 51 - 47 New York (L)

If anyone wanted a reason as to why I stopped betting sports, tonight would be a perfect example. This is a tough way to put the first loss on the scoreboard, but to be fair, had the half ended on Chalmers's step back three that would have been one lucky cover. Either way, this is why I still love following sports lines. Had I not known about the halftime spread, this would have been an okay first half. Knowing that I had the pick published on this blog, talk about an extreme roller coaster of emotion. No, money was not on the line, but my pride was ... and now my pride is bruised.

At least I can say I was right about Jeremy Lin. I didn't watch the second half of this game, but at halftime he only had 2 points, 2 assists and 6 turnovers. One thing is for certain, "Linsanity" will get back on track before I get over this tough beat.

Ah well, plenty of college games to choose from this weekend to get back on track.

Palm Beach Kennel Club WSOPC

I have been in Palm Beach Florida since Wednesday February 15.  The first tournament began on Thursday with three starting days, a $565 buyin, with a one million dollar guaranteed prize pool.  Day 1a (Thursday) was sold out, and I was shut out of it.  However, I did get into Day 1b and Day 1c.  There isn't too much to say about either of these days other than the play was horrific.  At these circuit stops there are always going to be recreational players who just cannot fold bottom pair because "I put you on AK"...this along with other great one liners is something I've had to endure for the past week.  I busted both of these days before the dinner break, which was a shame considering there were over 2,600 runners with $182,750 going to first place.

Event 3

I decided to skip event 2, which was a $355 buyin and chose to play event 3, a $355 HORSE tournament.  I thought these guys were bad at holdem, well they had no clue how to play HORSE(holdem, omaha hi lo, razz, stud, stud 8 or better) all being played as "limit" poker.  This is key as at the beginning of the tournament a guy could not figure out why he couldn't bet more than 100 on the river in holdem when we were playing 50/100.  He tried betting 300 a number of times and finally an older gentleman at the table stands up leans over right in his face and yells "WHAT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THIS IS LIMIT POKER!"  That made my day and I suddenly was happy I chose to play this event.  I slowly chipped up and for not having much HORSE experience myself was happy with my play.  I made the 2nd day of the tournament, but would bust out fairly early on day 2; around 30 people shy of the money.

Event 4

This was a $355 No Limit Holdem tournament that started at 11am(Florida has really early start times and it's tilting me).  This tournament started on the same day as day 2 of the HORSE tournament so I decided to play this event until my HORSE restart began at 2pm.  Live multi-tabling can usually be done, however it is almost impossible here because I would have to run up and down two flights of stairs and through a long hallway between hands.  I sat out of this event for around an hour while I played the HORSE restart.  Event 4 had 413 runners, paying out 45 spots, with a top prize of $26,142.  It's possible I made history in this event as with a starting stack of 10,000 chips I never once had over 30,000 in chips, and would eventually end up getting 43rd place for $537!  Just to put it into perspective the average chip stack with 45 players left would have been just below 100,000 chips. 

Event 5

This was a $355 No Limit Holdem 6-max tournament.  I was very excited coming into this one because two weeks ago in Tunica I finished 2nd in the 6-max for $14,000.  I was feeling another deep run coming, and I was sitting with a 20k stack on dinner break.  Coming back from dinner break with 20 big blinds is very comfortable for me.  This tournament had 391 runners, paying 45 spots, with a top prize of $24,736.  I believe there were around 90 people left after the dinner break.  I maintained my stack, and then went card dead for a couple levels.  We were five people away from the money when a very weird hand took place.  I was in the big blind for 1,600 and once the cards were dealt I look at the kid to my left and he has 1,600 in the pot when someone says, "Did you just limp?”  His response, "Oh shit I thought I was big blind, I swear".  Action folds to the small blind and he shoves for around 20,000.  I have 12,000 behind and decide to go with 77 since there was an extra 1,600 from the kid who "thought it was his big blind".  So I call and then he snaps with QQ, didn't really matter as the shover had AK and flopped a king anyway.  I'm still not sure if he knew he had queens or if he got lucky to wake up with a hand.  Finishing five spots out of the money was not a good feeling, but hey there's always another one.

Event 6

This was another $355 No Limit Holdem tournament.  I decided to register late as I often do because there really isn't any point in playing the first few levels of these things, plus the 11am starts are still tilting.  I started out playing fairly tight trying to get a feel for my table as I do in most tournaments.  I lose a few small pots putting me down to 8,000.  All of these circuit events have to same structure and starting stacks, the 355s have a 10k starting stack, the 565s have a 12k starting stack, the 1080s have a 15k starting stacks, and the Main Events $1,600 buyin have a 20k starting stack.  I continued to grind, at one point being as low as 2,900 before winning a hand.  Then right before the dinner break I won a big flip with AK vs 99 for a 23,000 pot.  Again coming back from dinner with 20 big blinds I was happy with it.  After dinner I get moved tables.  There are a lot of chips on this table.  There are 4 stacks over 100k and one of them had over 200k, which at this point in the tournament is ridiculous.  I stay right around 20 to 30k for a few levels before shoving 10 big blinds with QK and get called by AJ, board bricks.  We were 8 from the money and for the second time in two days I basically bubble.  On to the next one.

Jeremy Lin... meet Lebron James

Coming into this season, the Heat versus the Knicks was considered one of the better match-ups on paper... and that was before the meteoric rise of Jeremy Lin.  Now this match-up has more of a buzz than anyone could have ever imagined.  Forget Melo and Stoudemire, this game has now become "Linsanity" v. "King James" Round 1.

I think this will probably be one of the most watched games this season, especially considering the international appeal and following that Lin has garnered.  Because of that, I feel it is only necessary that I make a pick.  The Heat are currently riding a seven game winning streak, which is good for the longest active streak in the NBA.  In those seven games, the first five of which were on the road, the Heat have won each in dominating fashion.  As of this morning, the line for tonight's game favors the Heat at home by 9 points.  However, I will be focusing on the first half line for this particular game which currently has the Heat as 5 point favorites.

With my focus being on the first half, I wanted to dig a little deeper into the Heat's seven game winning streak:

During Miami's winning streak they are 6-1 against first half spreads.  I included the standing of the teams because their biggest blowouts in the first half have come against some of the better teams in the Eastern Conference (Atlanta / Indiana) while some of their weaker first half showings have come against weaker teams (Washington / Sacramento).  This Heat team seems to play up and down to the moment and / or their competition.

So far in this season, the Heat know when to show up and know how to make a statement.  And considering the Knicks usually make second half pushes and the Heat take advantage of their athleticism early, this could end up being another double digit lead for Miami at the half.  This also may be the first time this season that Jeremy Lin faces a team that is athletic enough to switch on the high pick and roll.  The Knicks utilize the high pick and roll to get Lin into space which gives him the opportunity to either drive or kick it out to an open teammate.  With the athletes on Miami's team, I just don't see that style of offense being as successful as it has been recently.

Although I think the Heat could cover the full game spread, the NBA seems to be notorious for back door covers in games like this.  I could easily see Miami having a 15-20 point lead dwindle back down to inside of 10 in the final minutes just because that's the nature of the NBA.  When a win is guaranteed, the stars come off the court and defense is almost non-existent.  It is for that reason that I think the halftime line is a safer play.

Pick:  Miami -5.0 (first half line)

Pick in Review: UM v NW

Pick: Michigan +2

Result: Michigan 67 - 55 Northwestern (W)

In a game in which Michigan shot 38 three-pointers, most by any Big Ten team this season, the game was determined on the defensive side of the ball. After scoring 31 points at halftime, Northwestern was held to just 18 points in the second half and only 6 points in overtime. The Big Ten's leading scorer, John Shurna, was held to only 4 points on 2 for 11 shooting in the second half and overtime.

Where I thought Michigan would take advantage of dribble penetration they did the absolute, complete opposite. 68% of their shot attempts were three pointers. In my previous post, I stressed how successful Michigan's offense could be if they focused on getting into the lane to create shots. Here are some stats that I kept track of during the game that show just that:

Note: These stats don't just represent shots that Burke / Hardaway took, but also shots taken by their teammates that were a direct result of their dribble penetration

The above statistics show two things:

1. Just how little Michigan's back court tried to penetrate and / or how hard Northwestern made it for them to do so; and
2. Just how successful Michigan can be when their guards commit to breaking down their defender's and forcing the opposing defense to collapse.

Michigan lives and dies from the three. Tonight they clawed and scratched there way to a victory on the road against a Northwestern team that desperately needed this game to boost their tournament chances. We know what the Wolverines identity is at this point, and we'll see just how far the three pointer can take them as we head into March.

Blogger's Note: I have decided to go ahead and keep a record of my picks which can be located on the right side of the blog. I know in my introductory post I said I wouldn't, but let's face it, I have an ego. In all seriousness though, I only plan on actually analyzing one to two games a week so, why not? If there's ever a game you'd want me to write about just leave a comment on any of the posts or shoot me a tweet @HoosierSully16.

B1G Game of the Night

I'll be honest, after I looked at some of the power rankings made by several ESPN insiders last week, I realized that I knew nothing about college basketball outside of the Big Ten. Wichita State and Drexel were in several of their rankings and it made no sense to me. Because of that fact, for the remainder of the CBB season, you will probably only see posts discussing B1G games. Once the "Big Dance" comes around I'll have some homework to do on teams from other conferences to gain a better understanding of the match-ups.

The first college game I'm going to look at on this blog is Michigan at Northwestern. Currently the Wildcats are a 1.5 point favorite and are coming off win in a must-win at home against Minnesota. Northwestern is still searching for their first NCAA tournament bid in their program's history and another win at home against the 11th ranked Wolverines would certainly give the selection committee something to think about.

On the other side, Michigan is peaking at the right time. Since losing by 15 at Ohio State (ranked 10th at the time) just over three weeks ago, the Wolverines have won four out of five culminating in a revenge win against those same Buckeyes (ranked 6th for the rematch). Although they are lead by freshman guard sensation Trey Burke, who has averaged over 14 points and 4 assists over the past 5 games, Michigan seems to go as their three point efficiency goes. Here's a look at their three point shooting in their four conference losses versus their last four conference wins:

In their four conference losses it seems as though that when they get down they rely heavily on the three to get back in the game. This is the definition of a team that lives and dies by the three. When they can't hit from beyond the arc they're in a lot of trouble. In the 2/18/2012 match-up versus Ohio State, they didn't shoot well from three, but countered that with their ability to get in the lane and create shots off of dribble penetration. Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to effectively defend Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. so I would expect this to be a game where they take advantage of their ability to break down their defenders. I'm expecting fewer 3PA as a percentage of their FGA, but also expect the majority of their 3PA they do get off to be wide open based on Northwestern's defense having to collapse once Michigan's guards find their way into the paint.

I'm focusing my attention in this post on Michigan because you know what you're going to get with Northwestern. John Shurna is going to get his points as the offense goes through him whenever he is on the court. As long as Michigan can disrupt Drew Crawford and Dave Sobolewski, the Wildcats won't have the fire power to keep up with the Wolverines. This is a different Michigan team that Northwestern will be facing compared to the team that allowed the Wildcats to take them into overtime in Ann Arbor. They're coming off their biggest win of the season against Ohio State and have the confidence and swagger that makes them an extremely difficult match-up for anyone in the Big Ten.

Before giving my pick, I wanted to share both Michigan and Northwestern's record against the spread:

Along with all of my thoughts above, Northwestern's weak record at home against the spread has all but forced me to take Michigan and the points. I would even contemplate buying a 1/2 point. Not because Michigan sometimes struggles on the road, but because it allows for the opportunity (albeit small) for a push.

Decision: Michigan +2 (buy 1/2 point)

Better Value: With the spread already being small, because I like Michigan, I also would consider taking the Michigan moneyline (+115). Taking this bet limits my risk with the opportunity to achieve the same payout as betting the spread.

MLB Futures

In honor of pitchers and catchers reporting this weekend, I thought my first post would be on my favorite type of bet for my favorite sport: MLB futures.  As of today, the odds for teams to win the World Series are as follows:

Philadelphia Phillies          6/1        Washington Nationals          28/1       San Diego Padres       90/1

Los Angeles Angels         13/2       Colorado Rockies              35/1        Seattle Mariners         90/1

New York Yankees        7/1          Milwaukee Brewers            35/1       Baltimore Orioles      150/1

Detroit Tigers                  8/1          Chicago Cubs                     40/1       Houston Astros         150/1

Texas Rangers                10/1         Los Angeles Dodgers         40/1

Boston Red Sox             12/1         Toronto Blue Jays              40/1

Florida Marlins               15/1         Chicago White Sox            60/1

San Francisco Giants      16/1         Cleveland Indians               65/1

Cincinnati Reds              22/1          Minnesota Twins                65/1
St. Louis Cardinals         22/1         Oakland Athletics               65/1
Tampa Bay Rays            22/1         Kansas City Royals            70/1
Arizona Diamondbacks  25/1          New York Mets                 75/1
Atlanta Braves               25/1          Pittsburgh Pirates                75/1

Deep Sleeper
At 75/1 and on the verge of acquiring the erratic very inconsistent AJ Burnett from the Yankees, the Pittsburgh Pirates were a surprise team in 2010.  Having made no other significant changes during the off-season, this is the same team that challenged the NL Central through 100 games.  They still haven't finished a season above .500 in 19 seasons, but with exit of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the NL Central, an always competitive division is as wide open as it has ever been.  When I talk about a deep deep sleeper in terms of futures, why not pick one, put $5 on it and let it ride.  In the MLB, there's always a breakout team no one saw coming (i.e., Tampa Bay starting 3 years ago, any of the Florida Marlins teams that made deep runs) and in 2012, why not Pittsburgh?

Realistic Sleeper
Staying in the NL Central, one of the busiest teams in the entire MLB this off-season is primed for a deep run.  The Cincinnati Reds raided their farm system to acquire former San Diego Padres ace Mat Latos.  Dubbed as the second best free agent acquisition by ESPN's Jayson Stark, snagging RP Ryan Madson solidifies their bull pen with Aroldis Chapman expected to start the season in the starting rotation.  Last, but not least, they also added lefty MRP Sean Marshall.  The Reds may have just created the best lefty / righty match-up bullpen in the NL, as well as, possibly stumbling upon a top 3 starting rotation, from top to bottom.  All of this in a division with no Pujols, Fielder, and Braun (for the first 50 games).  On paper, this appears to be one of the most complete teams in the NL (still no Philadelphia).  Anything can happen in a short series and if they make the playoffs this could be a match-up that no team wants to see in October.

Best Value
I define best value when it comes to futures by comparing "implied' versus "actual" odds.  Based on my knowledge of the sport, when I look at the odds above, I would say that any team with odds smaller than 25/1 don't have a realistic chance at making a run. Just by drawing that line in the sand, cuts the field of potential teams to bet on from 30 to 13.  This is where "implied" odds comes into play.  By ignoring teams you have a strong feeling won't even make the playoffs, you've just increased your "implied" odds from 1/30 to 1/13.  The value I find is when the "actual" odds (the Vegas odds listed above) are greater than the "implied" odds.  Based on that definition, I begin to see value with the Florida Marlins (15/1).  As a result, the best value for my money (hypothetically), lies with either the Atlanta Braves or the Arizona Diamondbacks.  And what do you know, I end up with two 2011 playoff teams.

One thing to remember: there is a big difference between a value bet and taking one of the favorites.  This is just how I look at the numbers to figure out where the value is for me.  The beauty about the MLB season is there's plenty of time to hedge your future's bets.  That's another post, another time.  Hope you enjoyed my mini baseball preview, along with how I determine where I can find value in futures.

Shuffle Up and Deal ...

Introduction

Welcome to Sully's Basement Game.  I want to be up front at the very beginning with the caveat that by no means am I advertising this site as offering betting advice.  I grew up loving numbers (naturally I became an accountant) and once I was introduced to poker in high school, I slowly gravitated to sports betting.  Since then, I've been enamored with following lines across all sports.  I no longer bet sports, but over time I've developed a fascination with Vegas and all of the number crunching and analysis that goes into figuring out where the best value lies.  That's what the premise of this blog is.  I want to put my thoughts into words and this gives me the best platform to do so.  I won't post every day, but periodically I'll come on here and talk about games that I like and why I like them based on my understanding of the numbers.

I am also happy to say that a good friend of mine and professional poker player, BK, will be a frequent contributor to the blog.  Currently, he is making the rounds across several WSOP circuit events and plans on updating us on his progress as well as talking tournament strategy based on hands he's experienced.

Background

Why "Sully's Basement Game?" I used to have a weekly poker game in my parent's basement starting my sophomore year in high school.  We played on a pool table and we only played for $40, but when you're in high school without a job that was worth four stacks of high society.  I wanted to name this blog after those weekly get togethers because without the experience of having that game, I never would have become as interested in the sports betting industry as much as I am today.

I hope you enjoy the blog.  I won't keep any records or try to convince you to follow my picks, but hopefully my spin and thought process on picking games as well as BK's inside look at being a professional poker player entertains enough to convince you to follow.

At the expense of sounding annoyingly cliche, time for this blog to "Shuffle up and deal!"