Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. II

Game:  Michigan State vs Saint Louis
Spread:  Michigan State -7


One of three.  That's what Draymond Green is.  He joined Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson as the only players in NCAA history to record more than on triple-double in tournament play.  I would imagine that Green won't get his third against the Billikens and their 8th ranked defense (according to the Pomeroy rankings).  That doesn't mean that Day-Day won't dominate yet another game.

Match-up to watch:  Kwamain Mitchell vs Keith Appling.  Kwamain keyed the Billiken's second half run against Memphis and finished with 22 points and a pair of three pointers.  He's only 5'10'', but is extremely quick.  With Branden Dawson out, I think Appling will continue to be the x-factor for the Spartans, especially now that they're going to be playing a team that has some size in their front court.  Green may be able to get his points, but I wouldn't count on Derrick Nix to be as dominant as he was in the first round.  Appling should be able to use his length, on both sides of the ball, to his advantage all game.

Pick:  Michigan State -7


Game:  Kansas vs Purdue
Spread:  Kansas -7.5


I'm a huge Hoosier fan, but I'm also a huge college basketball fan.  And as a college basketball fan, this really is an anti-climactic ending to a great career for Robbie Hummel.  The biggest problem the Boilermaker's have tried to battle all season is their lack of a presence down low.  Now they have to figure out how to contain one of the best big men in the country in Thomas Robinson.  If they double team him, who's going to guard the Jayhawk's seven footer?  The only chance Purdue has to make this a game is to use their quickness and athleticism that they have in their much smaller line-up to force Kansas to play small with them.  If they are hitting from deep it could be a close game.

Match-up to watch:  Ryne Smith / DJ Byrd vs Jayhawk Perimeter Defense.  Kansas knows they need to swarm Robbie Hummel, but the keys to this game will be whether or not the other perimeter shooters for Purdue can get going.  If they can't, this could wind up being a long game. At the end of the day, it's a tough way to see Hummel go.

Pick:  Kansas -7.5

Rapid Reaction: Hoosiers S16 Bound

There's a combination of two words in the gambling world that means there's no pressure, that you know you're at least not going to lose any money: free roll.  The Indiana Hoosiers have just earned that in a Sweet 16 rematch with rival Kentucky.  Regardless of the outcome of that game, the Hoosiers season has been a success; most would consider this year an overachievement.

And sure the Wildcats could blow out the Hoosiers by twenty come Friday, but you know what will be the take away from this rivalry after the Madness has ended? Hoosier Nation, foes and the college basketball world witnessed the come back of a storied program... at the expense of the Kentucky Wildcats.

Free roll.  There will be no pressure on the Hoosiers on Friday.  They can't play any worse than they did tonight.  They turned the ball over a season high 22 times against probably the best defensive scheme left in the tournament.  What was lost in all of the turnover's was the fact that Indiana was playing it's best defense of the season as well in the second half.  A half which they held the Rams to just 19 points and held them to under 40% shooting.

Free roll.  The Hoosiers weren't even supposed to make the tournament this year and they're in the Sweet 16.  They don't have four lottery picks on their team.  They aren't expected to win this game.  Seth Davis will probably pick against this team one more time.  And maybe that's how this team wants it to be. They've thrived in similar situations all season.

Free roll. Something the Kentucky Wildcats are not on. They have championship expectations facing a team that has already beaten them.  A team that clearly is less talented at an individual level, but team-wise can compete with anyone and they know it.

On Friday when these two schools battle for a spot in the Elite 8, if you're an Indiana fan just sit back and enjoy.  After all, this is supposedly where the road ends. You know, since we were supposedly headed for the NIT before the season started.  Oh and we were supposedly one and done once we made the tournament field.

If you're a Kentucky fan?  This is your worst nightmare.  Nothing worse than playing a team in March that knows they have nothing to lose.

Blogger's Note:  There's a few times that I'll have to let my fandom take over and obviously tonight is one of those instances.  I'm 5-4 in my B1G picks so far in the tournament.  I will post my preview / analysis / picks for the remaining Round of 32 games tomorrow morning before tip.  GO HOOSIERS!!

Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. I

First Round Bracket Results:
Overall: 21-11
Sweet 16 Teams Lost: 2 (Mizzou & Temple)
Elite 8 / Final 4 Team Lost:  1 (Mizzou)

Tournament Picks:  3-3


Game:  Ohio State vs Gonzaga
Spread:  Ohio State -7.5


If you're a fan of a school from a big conference, the last thing you wanted was a reason for these smaller schools to have a chip on their shoulders.  And then there were two 15 seed upsets within a span of three hours.  And now, the 2 seeded Ohio State Buckeyes get to face the mid-major who wrote the book on being a March Madness Cinderella: Gonzaga.  All of a sudden it feels like it's not a good year to be a 2 seed.

Throw in that the East is the only bracket in the tournament that didn't see a first round upset and it's almost common sense that something's gotta give.  Maybe this game won't end up as an upset, but 7.5 points is a lot to give a team who always plays their best basketball in March.  I know in the previous post I gave the WCC a hard time, but of the three losses they have against the B1G, the Zags were involved in two of those games (Illinois, Wisconsin).  If they could take away anything from those games, it's a sense of the B1G style of play.

Match-up to watch:  Kevin Pangos vs Aaron Craft.  The Zags got off to a fast start against the Mountaineers thanks to Pangos'.  He scored the Zags first five points and ended up hitting his first five shots of the game (including a couple of three pointers).  Hopefully Craft can stay out of foul trouble in this game because he's the Buckeye's only shot to slow him down.

Also consider:  The Zags have a true 7-footer in Robert Sacre while the tallest player the Buckeyes have that sees regular minutes is 6'9''.  Sullinger may be more athletic, but Evan Ravenel may have to see extended minutes in this game to keep Sully from getting in foul trouble.  I wouldn't exactly consider that an advantage for Ohio State.

Pick:  Gonzaga +7.5


Game: Wisconsin vs Vanderbilt
Spread:  Vanderbilt -1


The selection committee wasn't kind to Wisconsin.  They passed the first test against a high scoring team, in Montana, that relied on their point guard to create.  Luckily the Badger's size down low disrupted any chance Cherry Hill had to get going, specifically Jared Berggren who finished with a career high seven blocks.

Now they get to play one of the best scoring duos in the country in Vandy's John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor.  Neither are small point guards, both can shoot lights out, both can create of the dribble... Uh-oh.  This will be interesting to see which style of play prevails in this one.  The Commodores want to get out and run a little bit, but I guess any school likes to get out and run a bit when compared to Wisconsin.  Vanderbilt also has the athletes to crash the boards with Wisconsin which is where they had one of their biggest mis-matches against Montana.  And don't think anyone on Vanderbilt is going to let Jordan Taylor tea-bag them going for a rebound like he did against the Grizz's seven footer on Thursday.  I think this is just a mis-match nightmare for the Badgers.

Match-up to watch:  John Jenkins vs Badgers Perimeter Defense.  If Jenkins gets into a rhythm from deep, game over.  If Wisconsin can keep him from getting comfortable with his shot then they may have a chance.  I honestly do think that Wisconsin needs another miracle performance from Rob Wilson (yeah, I may still be bitter about his 30 point performance against the Hoosiers) to win this one.

Pick:  Vanderbilt -1


Game:  Indiana vs VCU
Spread: Indiana -6


Simple, if Indiana shoots the way they did against New Mexico State, this game will be over quickly.  Only problem is, can the Hoosiers can get the ball across mid court to get in their half court sets? Indiana hasn't seen any "havoc" like what Shaka Smart's squad is going to throw at them for forty minutes tonight.  Turnover's have been an issue periodically this season for Indiana and limiting them is the biggest key to this game.

Everyone knows VCU has athletes, but not many people know that they can shoot the three just as good as any team in the country.  Another problem area for Indiana throughout this season: perimeter defense.  Any team that can consistently hit open three's can stay in a game with the Hoosiers (i.e., Wisconsin in the B1G tournament).

This analysis really is simple.

Match-up to watch:  Indiana's Guards vs VCU's Havoc.  If they can handle the pressure and / or get out in transition to avoid the pressure without turning the ball over, Indiana can book a ticket to the Sweet 16.  Unfortunately, Indiana hasn't seen anything resembling this kind of pressure all season.  No tournament experience meets Final Four experience (oddly enough).

Pick:  VCU +6