CBB Picks: 1/17/2013

Well it's a few games into the conference season and I think it's time to actually start making some picks.  I've gotten to watch most of the Big Ten teams several times and hopefully have calibrated my pick-making skill... yeah, let's call it skill.  Unlike when I first started the blog, I'm going to keep the reasoning short in sweet.  Who cares much about the reasoning behind picks if you're getting them right, right? Right.

So here we go, my first college basketball picks of the 2012-13 season:

Game:  Michigan @ Minnesota, 7:00PM
Pick:  Michigan ML (+125)

Ah, I've missed this.  First pick right out of the gate is a road dog in a clash of top 10 teams in the Big Ten where road wins are a luxury.  Let's revisit Michigan's first loss against rival Ohio State.  Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 9 for 28 from the field and Nick Stauskas didn't register a single point (averages 12.7ppg).  It's quite simple, I don't expect that the Wolverines top two offensive threats and one of the best three point shooters in the country to have off nights in the same game tonight.  They lost by three, on the road, against their heated rival with those performances.  The Barn is an extremely tough place to play, but I'm predicting Michigan to win out right by four to seven points.  If you want to play it safe, I obviously am not opposed to Michigan +2.5 either.

Game:  Florida @ Texas A&M, 7:00PM
Pick:  Texas A&M +10.5

Let me preface this pick with the fact that I don't follow the SEC all that much.  Color me crazy, but giving a home team 10.5 points during conference play, a team that is coming off a big road win at Kentucky (I know Kentucky isn't as good as people thought, but any win at Rupp Arena is legit), doesn't sit right with me.  I'm purely taking Texas A&M out of principle.  Also, the total on this game is 122.  Friendly advice from a friend of mine suggested coupling your home dog with the over.  All you need is Texas A&M to get to 56 points (they're averaging 67 points) and you're at least going to push on the game.

Game:  Northwestern @ Illinois, 8:15 PM
Pick:  Illinois -10.0

If Northwestern had Drew Crawford, well not only would I not pick Illinois here they would probably only be six or seven point favorites.  The Wildcats just don't have the athletes to effectively and consistently defend the Illini.  They are known for their Princeton style offense which can give teams fits at times, but they won't be able to score enough points.  I expect this to be a night where Brandon Paul gets 25+ points and has a legit shot to add another 40 point game to his resume.  Illinois is the team that lives and dies by the three.  This may be one of the few games in conference they won't have to be reliant on the deep ball, but if they're hitting, it could get ugly quick.

Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. II

Game:  Michigan State vs Saint Louis
Spread:  Michigan State -7


One of three.  That's what Draymond Green is.  He joined Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson as the only players in NCAA history to record more than on triple-double in tournament play.  I would imagine that Green won't get his third against the Billikens and their 8th ranked defense (according to the Pomeroy rankings).  That doesn't mean that Day-Day won't dominate yet another game.

Match-up to watch:  Kwamain Mitchell vs Keith Appling.  Kwamain keyed the Billiken's second half run against Memphis and finished with 22 points and a pair of three pointers.  He's only 5'10'', but is extremely quick.  With Branden Dawson out, I think Appling will continue to be the x-factor for the Spartans, especially now that they're going to be playing a team that has some size in their front court.  Green may be able to get his points, but I wouldn't count on Derrick Nix to be as dominant as he was in the first round.  Appling should be able to use his length, on both sides of the ball, to his advantage all game.

Pick:  Michigan State -7


Game:  Kansas vs Purdue
Spread:  Kansas -7.5


I'm a huge Hoosier fan, but I'm also a huge college basketball fan.  And as a college basketball fan, this really is an anti-climactic ending to a great career for Robbie Hummel.  The biggest problem the Boilermaker's have tried to battle all season is their lack of a presence down low.  Now they have to figure out how to contain one of the best big men in the country in Thomas Robinson.  If they double team him, who's going to guard the Jayhawk's seven footer?  The only chance Purdue has to make this a game is to use their quickness and athleticism that they have in their much smaller line-up to force Kansas to play small with them.  If they are hitting from deep it could be a close game.

Match-up to watch:  Ryne Smith / DJ Byrd vs Jayhawk Perimeter Defense.  Kansas knows they need to swarm Robbie Hummel, but the keys to this game will be whether or not the other perimeter shooters for Purdue can get going.  If they can't, this could wind up being a long game. At the end of the day, it's a tough way to see Hummel go.

Pick:  Kansas -7.5

Round of 32: B1G Picks Pt. I

First Round Bracket Results:
Overall: 21-11
Sweet 16 Teams Lost: 2 (Mizzou & Temple)
Elite 8 / Final 4 Team Lost:  1 (Mizzou)

Tournament Picks:  3-3


Game:  Ohio State vs Gonzaga
Spread:  Ohio State -7.5


If you're a fan of a school from a big conference, the last thing you wanted was a reason for these smaller schools to have a chip on their shoulders.  And then there were two 15 seed upsets within a span of three hours.  And now, the 2 seeded Ohio State Buckeyes get to face the mid-major who wrote the book on being a March Madness Cinderella: Gonzaga.  All of a sudden it feels like it's not a good year to be a 2 seed.

Throw in that the East is the only bracket in the tournament that didn't see a first round upset and it's almost common sense that something's gotta give.  Maybe this game won't end up as an upset, but 7.5 points is a lot to give a team who always plays their best basketball in March.  I know in the previous post I gave the WCC a hard time, but of the three losses they have against the B1G, the Zags were involved in two of those games (Illinois, Wisconsin).  If they could take away anything from those games, it's a sense of the B1G style of play.

Match-up to watch:  Kevin Pangos vs Aaron Craft.  The Zags got off to a fast start against the Mountaineers thanks to Pangos'.  He scored the Zags first five points and ended up hitting his first five shots of the game (including a couple of three pointers).  Hopefully Craft can stay out of foul trouble in this game because he's the Buckeye's only shot to slow him down.

Also consider:  The Zags have a true 7-footer in Robert Sacre while the tallest player the Buckeyes have that sees regular minutes is 6'9''.  Sullinger may be more athletic, but Evan Ravenel may have to see extended minutes in this game to keep Sully from getting in foul trouble.  I wouldn't exactly consider that an advantage for Ohio State.

Pick:  Gonzaga +7.5


Game: Wisconsin vs Vanderbilt
Spread:  Vanderbilt -1


The selection committee wasn't kind to Wisconsin.  They passed the first test against a high scoring team, in Montana, that relied on their point guard to create.  Luckily the Badger's size down low disrupted any chance Cherry Hill had to get going, specifically Jared Berggren who finished with a career high seven blocks.

Now they get to play one of the best scoring duos in the country in Vandy's John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor.  Neither are small point guards, both can shoot lights out, both can create of the dribble... Uh-oh.  This will be interesting to see which style of play prevails in this one.  The Commodores want to get out and run a little bit, but I guess any school likes to get out and run a bit when compared to Wisconsin.  Vanderbilt also has the athletes to crash the boards with Wisconsin which is where they had one of their biggest mis-matches against Montana.  And don't think anyone on Vanderbilt is going to let Jordan Taylor tea-bag them going for a rebound like he did against the Grizz's seven footer on Thursday.  I think this is just a mis-match nightmare for the Badgers.

Match-up to watch:  John Jenkins vs Badgers Perimeter Defense.  If Jenkins gets into a rhythm from deep, game over.  If Wisconsin can keep him from getting comfortable with his shot then they may have a chance.  I honestly do think that Wisconsin needs another miracle performance from Rob Wilson (yeah, I may still be bitter about his 30 point performance against the Hoosiers) to win this one.

Pick:  Vanderbilt -1


Game:  Indiana vs VCU
Spread: Indiana -6


Simple, if Indiana shoots the way they did against New Mexico State, this game will be over quickly.  Only problem is, can the Hoosiers can get the ball across mid court to get in their half court sets? Indiana hasn't seen any "havoc" like what Shaka Smart's squad is going to throw at them for forty minutes tonight.  Turnover's have been an issue periodically this season for Indiana and limiting them is the biggest key to this game.

Everyone knows VCU has athletes, but not many people know that they can shoot the three just as good as any team in the country.  Another problem area for Indiana throughout this season: perimeter defense.  Any team that can consistently hit open three's can stay in a game with the Hoosiers (i.e., Wisconsin in the B1G tournament).

This analysis really is simple.

Match-up to watch:  Indiana's Guards vs VCU's Havoc.  If they can handle the pressure and / or get out in transition to avoid the pressure without turning the ball over, Indiana can book a ticket to the Sweet 16.  Unfortunately, Indiana hasn't seen anything resembling this kind of pressure all season.  No tournament experience meets Final Four experience (oddly enough).

Pick:  VCU +6

Round of 64: B1G Picks Pt. II

Yesterday is why I decided not to join any pools.  I went 11-5 and didn't lose any Sweet 16 games as of yet, which doesn't sound bad.  But my wife, who doesn't know much outside of Indiana basketball went 14-2 (including picking 11 seeded Colorado, from the Pac12 ... who would take anyone from the Pac12??? Well, my wife did and got it right).  Anyway, today is a new day.

I went 1-2 in my B1G picks yesterday.  Didn't see Wisconsin's offensive explosion coming, or Montana's lack of offense for that matter either.  If the Hoosiers keep winning when I pick against them, I'll keep picking against them simple as that. And I'll admit I got lucky in the Ohio State game.  I really wasn't expecting them to sit their starters with 3 minutes left.


Game:  Michigan vs Ohio
Spread:  Michigan -5.5


FACT: Michigan shot more three pointers than any team in the B1G; is 16th nationally in three pointers attempted per game; is 27th nationally in three pointers made per game; and is 8th nationally in three pointers attempted as a percentage of totals shots attempted per game.

FACT: Ohio University has the 18th ranked defense against the three pointer, holding opponents to just 30.3% on the season.

FACT: Michigan went 2-1 in the B1G against teams who were better defensively against the three than Ohio. They beat Wisconsin, ranked 7th defensively against the three by holding opponents to 29.0% beyond the arc and they split with Michigan State, ranked 10th defensively against the three, holding opponents to 29.2% shooting from deep.

FACT: Ohio University allows 31.1% three point shooting away from home, which would rank them 40th in the country.

FACT:  Ohio University has allowed 41.8% three point shooting over their last three games, which would only rank them 344 out of 345 Division I schools (all on a neutral court for the Mid American conference tournament).

Conclusion:  Ohio University is in trouble.

Pick:  Michigan -5.5


Game: St. Mary's vs Purdue
Spread:  St. Mary's -1.5


I know what Purdue is capable of and I know what Robbie Hummel is capable of.  The problem is I'm unaware of what St. Mary's is capable of.  I know they're the only team in the last 11 years to win a West Coast Conference tournament title other than Gonzaga.  How do you compare the top team of a mid-major conference to a middle of the road team in what was considered to be the toughest conference in the country all year.  You go with what you know. The B1G tournament teams were 3-0 against WCC tournament teams.  It's hard to argue with the competition the Boilermaker's faced week in and week out.  Hard to argue that Purdue wouldn't be more prepared than St. Mary's.  They're also more well rested as they didn't make a deep run in the B1G conference tournament.  B1G continues it's strong showing in the tournament thus far and the Boilermaker's give the conference it's only possible upset in the Round of 64.

Pick:  Purdue +1.5


Game:  Michigan State vs Long Island
Spread:  Michigan State -19.5


I don't care what happened with Syracuse yesterday.  You should always expect the 1 seeds to win by 20+.  Do I need anymore analysis than that?  Oh yeah, one more word that means something in March: Izzo.

Pick:  Michigan State -19.5

Round of 64: B1G Picks Pt. I

Game:  Wisconsin vs. Montana
Spread:  Wisconsin -9


If you follow B1G basketball, then you're well aware of Bo Ryan's style of play.  Methodically take the shot clock down to under ten seconds before taking a shot, shot a high percentage and play hard nosed defense for forty minutes.  The only problem this year?  They haven't been so methodical on offense.  They're only averaging 64 points a game (good for 263rd in D1) and are only shooting 42% from the field (good for 230th in D1).  More often than I've ever witnessed under Bo Ryan, the Badger offense can go stagnant and let's face it, defense can take you only so far.

Match-up to watch:  Jordan Taylor vs. Will Cherry.  Statistically speaking they're identical players.  However, due to the style of play for their respective team, Cherry has more of an opportunity to take over a game.

Pick:  Montana +9


Game:  Indiana vs. New Mexico State
Spread: Indiana -6.5


In the B1G tournament, I said they wouldn't show up.  After all, there wasn't a Hoosier on their roster that had played a single minute in the post season.  Result? They blew a Penn State team out of the water by nearly 20.  It's tough to confidently pick this team.  This is one of several Jekyll and Hyde teams in the field this year. I feel that maybe we can attribute Indiana's performance in their opening game of their conference tournament to familiarity with their opponent.  They won't have that luxury in this game, on top of the fact they're traveling all the way to Portland to play.

A lot of factors seem to be going against the Hoosiers in their first NCAA tourney game under Tom Crean.  It also doesn't make me feel well that the line opened up at -6 and has hardly moved.  I don't know a lot about New Mexico State, but I do know they know how to get to the free throw line (shot 350+ more free throws than their opponent this year).  I do know they have a Draymond Green type player in Wendell McKines who averages nearly 20 points a game.  It's a scary match-up against an unfamiliar opponent, in an unfamiliar part of the country, in an unfamiliar post season atmosphere.  No upset alert, but New Mexico makes this a close one.

Match-up to watch:  Cody Zeller vs. Wendell McKines.  McKines is a volume shooter.  He averaged around 17 shots per game during the regular season.  That's a lot of possessions that Zeller is going to have to guard the post. Expect to see a combination of Watford / Sheehey / Elston / Pritchard / Zeller on McKines throughout the game.  The Hoosiers can't afford for Zeller to get in foul trouble and the Aggies are dedicated to feeding the post.  New Mexico State had one of the biggest discrepancies in foul shooting, when compared to their opponents, in the country and McKines is a big reason why.

Pick:  New Mexico St. +6.5


Game: Ohio State vs. Loyola (Md.)
Spread: Ohio State -17


In the B1G, there's Ohio State and Michigan State .. and then there's everybody else.  Aside from the Buckeyes, I think the remainder of the B1G schools on Thursday have a relatively tough game (duh, OSU is a 2-seed).  The loss in the conference championship may have been the best thing to happen to Thad Matta's team heading into the Big Dance.  They almost looked entitled when calls wouldn't go there way and I saw a lack of maturity in Sullinger that I hadn't seen in a long time.  Hopefully that loss put things in to perspective and refocused them.  They'll need it as they don't exactly have an easy road to the Final 4 (potential match-ups against Gonzaga, West Virginia, Florida State, Texas or Cincinnati just to get to Elite 8).

Match-up to watch:  Jared Sullinger vs. The Referees.  As I mentioned before, during the conference championship Sully seemed to get pretty chippy with some of the calls that were going against him.  That probably didn't help him get many calls down the stretch.  Hopefully he can keep his composure during the tournament which may give him the benefit of the doubt and could go a long way in keeping him out of foul trouble.

Pick:  Ohio State -17

Big Ten: Championship Pick / NCAA Seeding

Game:  Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Spread:  Ohio State -1.5


Well I think it was clear who the x-factor was the last time these two teams met.  Before Branden Dawson goes down with a season-ending knee injury, the Spartans enjoyed a nine point lead at home and were dominating on the offensive end of the floor.  As soon as he left the game, however, the tide, the momentum, the effectiveness all swayed into Ohio States favor.

Who knew a freshman could have that big of an impact on a game?  When you sit back and think about what he brings to the table, as far as his skill set is concerned, it absolutely makes sense.  Michigan State does have an abundance of depth (as mentioned in my previous post on this match-up).  What I failed to initially realize is where their depth was.  Who can the Spartans rely upon to make their own shots?  Who do they rely upon to be the athletic wingman that can get out in transition and make something happen?  Brandon Wood can only take them so far, but the combination of Wood and Dawson was reliable and consistent.

You would then think that Keith Appling should be the next man up to provide an offensive spark.  With Aaron Craft guarding him all game, that may be a tall task in terms of scoring.  I think when Michigan State's offense is at their best is when Appling focuses on being a facilitator to their offense, rather than him looking to score.  Without Dawson, this may have to change a bit.  Sure, Michigan State has easily rolled their way into the championship, but so has Ohio State.

Regardless of any analysis that you read or hear anywhere, this is going to be another grind it out affair between the best the B1G has to offer (sorry Michigan, congrats on tying for the regular season crown, but in my opinion you're still a step below these teams).  This is what makes the B1G the best conference in my opinion. Anything can happen in this game.  It could be close; Michigan State could win by 20+; or Ohio State could win by 20+.  This is a stay away game from a betting stand point, but how can I not just make a prediction?

At the end of the day, just enjoy the matchup because across the other BCS conferences, this will be the only match-up between the two best teams from their respective conference.

Pick:  Ohio State -1.5


NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions (seeds are in parentheses)


Ohio State (1) *
Michigan State (2) *
Wisconsin (4)
Michigan (4)
Indiana (5)
Purdue (7)
Northwestern (bubble officially bursted with their loss to Minnesota in first round)

* The winner of the championship game today will get the one seed with the consolation for the losing team being a two seed.  Obviously I had to make my predictions align with my pick for the game.

March Madness is here!!

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 5 & 6

Game:  Michigan State vs. Iowa
Spread:  Michigan State -11


This is going to be a very intriguing match-up.  The Spartans will take the floor for the first time since losing Branden Dawson to a knee injury in their regular season finale against Ohio State.  I think there are going to be a lot of questions that will be answered during this game.  Michigan State is still in line for a one seed, but it is absolutely dependent on their performance today and throughout the rest of the conference tournament should they win.  Unfortunately for Sparty, the selection committee also considers player availability in determining what seed a team will receive.  A loss today could drop Michigan State to as low as a three seed.

Now, a loss isn't likely, but Iowa is playing with a chip on their shoulder and is coming off a great second half in their first round game versus Illinois.  They turned a seven point deficit into an eight point lead of their own before closing out the Illini for a three point win.  Maybe Iowa is the B1G Cinderella this year.  I think if Aaron White and Melsahn Basabe can at least slow Draymond Green down and Gatens can follow up his 20 point performance yesterday with another big time game, this game could be teetering back and forth up until the final moments.  If this were the regular season and this game were in East Lansing, eleven points would seem like a gimme considering how the Spartans have been playing as of late.  But it's March, this is the B1G Tournament, the game will be played on a neutral court and Iowa has a lot more to gain by winning this game.

Iowa will stick around in this one.  And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they somehow pull the big upset.

Pick:  Iowa +11


Game:  Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Spread:  Indiana -1.5


After the game versus Penn State, you couldn't tell that the Hoosiers were playing for their first post season win since 2006.  They came out firing on all cylinders and didn't even flinch when senior leader and spark off the bench, Verdell Jones III went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury.  Penn State's Tim Frazier looked like he was going to single-handedly make sure the Nittany Lions stayed in this game after scoring 19 points in the first half.  He was then held scoreless in the second half until the 11:23 mark.  If the Hoosiers can show that kind of defensive prowess on Jordan Taylor today, they surely can expect the same result when time runs out.

The problem is, Bo Ryan knows how to get wins in the B1G Tournament.  The Badgers have the fourth best winning percentage in conference tournament play where the Hoosiers have historically struggled.  The key to this game will be whether or not Indiana can get out in transition and find open jump shooters on the perimeter or get easy buckets underneath.  I'm also curious to see how much energy Indiana used in getting their comfortable win against Penn State when I'm sure the emotion after VJIII going down spurred their second half surge.

It will be a tough game for both squads, but I think I'm done being cautiously optimistic with this Hoosier team. They smacked Purdue in the regular season finale and played like a veteran squad yesterday against Penn State.  Facts are facts and the fact is, Indiana is 22-1 in the State of Indiana this season.

Pick:  Indiana -1.5


Blogger's Note:  As of 10:00am the lines for Games 7 & 8 have not opened.  Because of the timing, I will still post my picks for those games later today, but will not be able to provide much analysis within the post.

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 3 & 4

Game:  Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Spread:  Northwestern -2.5


No pressure, Northwestern.  You only have to win this game and probably one more to safely place yourselves into the first NCAA tournament of your program's history.  Your consolation gift should you lose? Probably a #1 seed in the NIT.  This may be the closest the Wildcats have gotten to the tournament, ever.  Based purely on recent history, I would have to say Northwestern is poised to meet Michigan in the quarterfinals. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last ten games, and before beating Nebraska in the regular season finale were in the midst of a six game losing streak.  Northwestern on the other hand, has been ultra competitive in the majority of their B1G games this season.  Five of their losses in conference play were by five points or less which included games at Michigan, at Indiana, home against Purdue and home against Ohio State.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I don't think recent history matters much.  Northwestern and Minnesota split their series during the season, both teams winning at home.  Although Northwestern has statistically had a better season, they have way more pressure on them considering what is at stake.  That could have something to do with the fact that the Wildcats have only gone 6-14 in B1G tournament play.  Out of the four match-ups in the first round I expect this to be the closest and actually think the spread won't budge before game time.  I think the pressure on Northwestern is too much to handle again and is one of those match-ups that I would recommend considering the Minnesota money line based on value.  If Northwestern does win, they barely squeak by.

Pick:  Minnesota +2.5

Game:  Purdue vs. Nebraska
Spread:  Purdue -9.5


Good news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference in their first year in the B1G.  Bad news for Nebraska; they didn't finish last in the conference because it gives them a match up with a pissed off Purdue team in the first round of the tournament.  Historically, I would say that it would be hard to find a six seed that is more talented than this years Boilermakers.  That speaks to just how deep the B1G was this year.

Oh and on top of Purdue being a good team, let's look a little deeper at the magic behind being the six seed:

• Aside from the one seed, the six seed has the second best winning percentage in B1G tournament history (68%)
• The six seed has the most combined wins in B1G tournament history (28 wins versus 27 wins combined for the one seed)
• Along with the one seed, the six seed is the only other seed in B1G tournament history to rack up 20+ wins (behind the one and six seeds, the next highest combined win total is 17 by the two seed)
• In the past two years, a six seed has reached the conference championship game.  

This game has mismatch written all over it.  Senior Robbie Hummel won't let this team lose this game.  He won't let it be close.  Too much talent, too much experience.  As much as it pains me to say, Purdue rolls in this one.

Pick:  Purdue -9.5

B1G Tournament Picks: Games 1 & 2

Game:  Illinois vs. Iowa
Spread:  Illinois -2


Both of these teams share the same fate: Win or go to the NIT.  The Illini have enough talent to make a deep run in this tournament.  Especially since they would play a Branden Dawson-less Spartan squad should they beat what I think is a less-talented Hawkeye team.  Here's the catch, more talent doesn't guarantee wins in March. Iowa certainly has some intangible advantages over Illinois.  More senior leadership, they don't have to worry about whether their coach is going to make it through the off-season and they just seem to be playing with the B1G toughness that Illinois has lacked the second half of the season.

This line opened up as a pick two days ago and has since moved to Illinois being a two point favorite.  I know I said that talent doesn't guarantee wins, but maybe Illinois gave up on the regular season.  Maybe they put all of their chips in the B1G tournament. Maybe, just maybe, they want to play to try and save their coach's job.  I think short of winning this tournament, Illinois would have to make a rather deep run in the NIT to make the decision to get rid of Bruce Weber a difficult one.  They may not win the entire tournament, but one more time, I'm taking the Illini to show some signs of life and at least take care of Iowa .

Pick: Illinois -2  (really wish I would have picked this game when the line opened, would have loved to have had Illinois - pk)


Game:  Indiana vs. Penn State
Spread:  Indiana -13.5


Indiana is easily the hottest team in the B1G entering the tournament.  They finished the season winning seven out of their last eight games, including impressive (understatement) wins at home against then #5 Michigan State and arch-rival Purdue.  Any way you slice it, the final two games are probably the best back-to-back performances of their entire season.  Is Indiana peaking at the right time?  It certainly has gotten the attention of some analysts and even CBS's Jim Nantz has publicly chosen Indiana as one of his Final Four teams.

It's easy to forget that this is the same Indiana team that doesn't have a player on its current roster that has won a single post-season game, B1G or otherwise.  I'll admit that as a Hoosier fan, the way the team is playing has me extremely excited to see my alma mater start racking up some post season victories again, but I'm not naive enough to think it will come easy.  Penn State made a B1G championship run just last season, so they know how ruin championship hopes against better teams.  This line opened up with Indiana being 11.5 point favorites.  There's a lot of pressure on this Indiana team that isn't used to anything resembling expectations in March.

Am I predicting an upset?  Absolutely not.  The question that should I should be and am considering is, "Do I think this will be a comfortable win?"  Eh, depends on what you call comfortable.  I don't think this is a one possession game, but this isn't a blow-out waiting to happen.  Maybe I'm trying to hedge my emotions with this pick, but I think the Hoosiers come out flat in the beginning, but find a away to pull out an ugly win.

Pick:  Penn State +13.5

Sunday Funday Pt. III

Game:  Purdue @ Indiana
Spread:  Indiana - 5


Fifth place in the Big Ten is on the line.  Not quite the same stakes as the Michigan State / Ohio State game, but for Hoosier fans, this might as well be for the regular season championship considering where this team has come from in the past three years.  Indiana won by 17 in the previous match-up between these two teams AT Purdue.

Since then, Purdue has been on a roller coaster.  They suspended DJ Byrd and dismissed Kelsey Barlow right before what was their biggest game of the year at home against Michigan State.  What people thought was an emotional effort by the Boilermaker's, who challenged the Spartan's that game, turned out to be anything but a fluke.  Ryne Smith called the dismissal of Kelsey Barlow, "addition by subtraction."  Hindsight may be 20/20, but based on their performances since then, it's hard to argue with that statement.

After the Hoosier's convincing win against the fifth ranked Spartan's, you would think that a five point spread should be easy... it won't be.  It doesn't matter that IU is 17-1 at home with three wins against top five teams.  It doesn't matter that IU won by 17 at Mackey Arena.  It doesn't matter that the Hoosier crowd may be as hype for this game as any game this season.  This is Indiana / Purdue in the last game of the regular season.  Throw any stats you have out the window.  A win at Assembly Hall solidifies Purdue's tournament resume and assuming they can win at least one game in the B1G tournament, it all but guarantees them a spot in the Big Dance.  It won't be hard for either team to get up for this game I can promise you that.

Something that many people may not know:  Purdue leads the overall series with Indiana 112 to 86.  Indiana probably had the better team in terms of rankings and / or statistically speaking in many of those wins, but like I said above: It doesn't matter.

I'm not going to sit here and spew out stats, mainly because I would require a book deal to go into that much detail.  This is one of the best college basketball rivalries in the country and having grown up watching many classic battles I know what's going to happen come 6pm.  The basketball game that will ensue in Bloomington tomorrow will be the epitome of Big Ten basketball.  Bodies will be flying, elbows will be thrown and emotion will be high.  Indiana is 23-7, Purdue is 20-10 ... Indiana is over achieving, Purdue is under achieving ... but you know what?  It doesn't matter.  Tomorrow's match-up between the Hoosiers and Boilermaker's will be what college basketball is all about.

Pick:  Purdue +5

Sunday Funday Pt. II

Game:  Ohio State @ Michigan State

Spread:  Michigan State -2.5

There's a lot at stake in this game.  Not only is the Big Ten regular season championship up for grabs, but I think the B1G POY will be decided in this game as well.  If Draymond Green and Jared Sullinger exchange blows all game, then it belongs to Green.  If, somehow Sullinger dominates this game and Green struggles, it won't be so clear as to who ends up with the hardware.  When you look at the first match-up between these two teams a couple things stand out to me:

• William Buford and Aaron Craft shot poorly (combined they were 4 for 24 shooting)
• Michigan State's depth won that game

Ohio State's starting five is one of the best starting groups in the country.  The Buckeye's problem?  Their depth.  In the game against Michigan State look at the minutes logged by their starter's:

• Willam Buford:  36 minutes
• Aaron Craft:  40 minutes
• Deshaun Thomas:  32 minutes
• Lorenzo Smith, Jr.:  30 minutes
• Jared Sullinger:  40 minutes

A total of seven Buckeye's played that game while Sparty rotated ten players.  When you look at OSU's schedule, Michigan State is the only team that has been able to produce a second string that could still compete against their starter's (I would expect an argument to this statement to be Duke ... look at their roster, outside of interchanging Plumlee's they don't have many options).  Because Ohio State is forced to play their starter's so much (out of 200 minutes, their starter's have averaged 147.9 minutes per game this season), there has to be concerns about their conditioning this late in the season.  Maybe Ohio State can use the excuse that they just didn't want to share a championship with Michigan once this game is over.  I think the first half will be close, but I do expect Michigan State's abundance of depth on the road to be too much for the Buckeye's to handle.

Pick:  Michigan State -2.5

Sunday Funday Pt. I

Well I think it's abundantly clear that I should just stay away from picking NBA games.  I guess you could say it's for professionals, and I'm certainly the furthest thing from that.  Hopefully I can rebound from my NBA slide and keep the heater alive in college basketball.

In this series of posts, I'm going to pick every Big Ten game (four games) in preparation for the conference tournament.  Just to give my reader's a heads up, I do plan on picking every single game of the Big Ten tournament.  There is still seeding yet to be determined based on the outcomes of the games tomorrow, so I expect some extremely entertaining games tomorrow.

Game:  Michigan @ Penn State
Spread:  Michigan -5.5


Michigan has an outside chance to earn a share of the regular season Big Ten championship if they can take care of business on the road and with a little bit of help from, ironically, Ohio State (will be discussed later on). Tim Hardaway, Jr. may have found his swagger after coming off of his best performance of the season at Illinois, scoring 26 points on an amazingly efficient 6 of 7 shooting (4 of 4 from beyond the arc; 9 of 10 from the charity stripe).  I think Inside the Hall founder / writer Alex Bozich said it best on twitter when he said that when Hardaway plays with that kind of confidence, "Michigan goes from good to scary."  This is purely based on position by position match-ups and the fact that Penn State's home court advantage is negligible, or possibly non-existent.

Pick:  Michigan -5.5


Game:  Illinois @ Wisconsin
Spread:  Wisconsin -10.5


Here's the deal, the Illini have a lot of talent and when they play as a team, they're one of the best teams in the conference.  You don't beat both Ohio State and Michigan State without having some talented players.  At this point, Illinois seems to be playing for themselves as Bruce Weber all but fired himself during the Purdue post game conference five games ago.  Remember Penn State's run in the Big Ten tournament last year?  I think this Illini team has that kind of run in them.  Also, compared to the last couple of years, Wisconsin has been "human" at home this season with four losses(also only had a 5 point win at home against lowly Nebraska).  Now I'm not trying to predict an Illinois upset at the Kohl Center, but I do think that Illinois can start to build some momentum heading into the conference tourney by having a competitive game on the road.

Pick:  Illinois +10.5

Blogger's Note: This has nothing to do with my analysis, but if you're Meyers Leonard, or even one of his teammates, how could you not play inspired after the surprise Leonard received after a practice last week.  If you're unfamiliar with Meyers Leonard or his story, I highly recommend you read the piece that was written on him in early January.

'Heat' Check

Game:  Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz
Spread:  Miami -4.5


I guess Vegas just thinks they have to struggle at some point.  In the last ten games, the Heat are 8-2 against the spread.  Out of those ten games, seven of them were on the road. Out of those seven road games, they were 6-1 against the spread.  Their only loss?  At Orlando, ten games ago.

I admit I was a little skeptical last night at Portland, without Chris Bosh.  They looked better than ever.  Lebron James guarded all five positions and combined, LBJ and DWade scored 71 points on 25 of 45 shooting.  Just re-read that last sentence.  And again.

Moral of the story?  Don't doubt the Heat, just go with it.  I don't care if this is on the road and the second night of a back-to-back.  Need I remind you that in February; in their fifth road game in a row; their third road game in three days; favored by only two points at Indiana ... they won by fifteen.  That may not sound impressive, but they were up by 30+ in the third quarter and LBJ / DWade didn't play hardly at all in the fourth quarter.  This is not a normal team.  As long as Vegas keeps throwing lines like this against mediocre teams, I'll take it.

Pick:  Miami -4.5


Game:  Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets
Spread:  Dallas -6.5


Quick, who is the starting five for the Hornets?  Outside of Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman, I couldn't have answered that question myself without looking it up.  The only reason I knew of Gordon and Kaman is because of the Chris Paul trade.  Gordon has missed all but two games this season with knee problems and without him the Hornets can't really compete with that many teams.

Dallas on the other hand, seems to have hit their stride as of late.  The veteran laden team took a couple of weeks to catch up with the season, starting the season 0-5.  Since that horrendous start, they have gone 21-10 and currently hold the fifth seed in the Western Conference.  This is a team that took advantage of every second of the All-Star break to recuperate in preparation for the second half push.  This is a perfect game and opponent for them to gain some confidence as well as momentum as they look to prove they can at least contend for a repeat.  I think this will be a sweat to cover, but I think Dirk gets them there in the fourth.

Pick:  Dallas -6.5


Blogger's Note:  As I was writing this post, the line for the Dallas / NO game moved to Dallas -7.  The half point doesn't concern me with this particular match-up.  Definitely get it before it moves to Dallas -7.5, because I think that's where the line will end up.

Back on the NBA Wagon

Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers
Opening Spread: Miami -5
Current Spread (as of 6:00pm): Miami -3.5

I know I gave the teaser earlier that I may be picking two NBA lines. There was the caveat that any late line movement would detour me from making the second pick. Cue Chris Bosh. Since the Heat made the announcement that Bosh wouldn't be with the team for at least the next couple of games due to a death in the family, the line has moved over a point. Now I just don't know what to think about that game. Sure the Heat still have Lebron and DWade, but who is going to slow down LaMarcus Aldridge? Don't say Joel Anthony. He's a low post defender that specializes in help defense around the rim. Put him 16ft+ away from the basket with Aldridge facing him up and he's out on an island.

Now I'll admit that my forte isn't NBA, but even Charles Barkley could see that there's going to be match up issues on both sides of the court in that game. For that reason, I consider the Heat versus Trail Blazer's a stay away. If you don't feel good about one side or the other that's enough reason to just walk away and not waste your time or risk your money.

Oklahoma City @ Orlando Magic
Spread: Oklahoma City -1


Oklahoma City has the best scoring duo in the NBA right now. I challenge any of the readers / followers to comment on this post to give me a better duo. I'm certainly playing the odds with that challenge. It's a win / win for me. Let's explore the possibilities:

1. Either I'll get some comment activity on this blog, which is something I wouldn't mind happening, or;
2. No one will comment which will make it look like I made a valid point. Full disclosure, out of 12 posts there has only been two total posts (shout out to my dude @OneTwentyFour for those too)

So to the 10's of readers that follow this blog right now, challenge issued. Challenge my opinion or risk my ego growing just a little bit more.

Now, back to the game. On the other side of the ball, you have a Dwight Howard that was probably playing with 80% effort prior to the All-Star weekend. He was still putting up monster numbers which is really scary. With the trade deadline approaching in the next couple of weeks, I'm curious to see the effort that he puts into these games. It seems as though in these kinds of situations in the NBA, more than any other professional sport, player's seem to have some lackluster performances leading up to their expected departure from a team (i.e., Lebron's last playoff series with Cleveland).

Fact, team's don't play all that well with a distraction, especially a 7'0'' 270lb franchise altering distraction.

Regardless of what Howard we see tonight, the Thunder are going to be running up and down the court often. The Magic are more of a half court team and probably won't respond well to that style of play. Even though the Thunder are on the road, the way that they have been playing, as well as how hot Durant / Westbrook continued to be through the All-Star Game; there's only a few teams that can threaten their momentum ... and the Magic is not one of those teams. The Thunder Roll(s) .. see what I did there?

Pick: Oklahoma City -1

You Can Call Me a Homer ...

For those of you who don't know me outside of the posts you've been reading, I would classify myself as a die hard Indiana Hoosier fan.  For those of you that do know me, what you probably don't know is that when it comes to making picks on games that involve the Hoosiers, I actually am pretty unbiased.  "TheRealLINsanity" and "Kramer" can tell you that I use my knowledge of my favorite team and the Big Ten conference as a whole to analyze a given match-up while leaving all emotion aside.

If I could give one piece of advice to any sports better or want to be sports better out there, it would be this:  Don't bet on emotion.  If you have a favorite team, unless you're positive you can make a pick without factoring in your desired outcome of the game, don't bet any of their games.  Sure you may get lucky here in there, but I promise in the long run you're going to get burned.

One of the reasons I haven't picked a Hoosier game to date on the blog is because of my perceived bias towards them as most of the follower's know where my fandom lies.  At some point, I was going to give in, so here we go.

The Assembly Hall has proven it's worth this season as the Hoosiers have upset #1 Kentucky (their only loss this season), #2 Ohio State and #13 Michigan within a three week period earlier this season.  The Hoosiers are 11-3 this season at home against the spread; 4-3 in conference play.  Michigan State is 4-4 in conference play on the road this season; their straight up record in the four games they didn't cover is 1-3.  Yes, Michigan State is hot, yes they're on a seven game winning streak, but they haven't experienced an atmosphere like Assembly Hall this season.  There isn't another conference in the country where the home court advantage plays a bigger role than in the Big Ten.   Oh and it doesn't hurt that the Hoosiers are hitting 49% of their field goals and 42% of their three point field goals this season at home.

It's going to be close from start to finish and has all the makings to be a classic.  It's hard not to take the home team when they're getting points, with one of the best home court advantages in the country as an ace up their sleeve.  I think you all know where I'm going with this, so go ahead and call me a homer if you want...

Spread:  Michigan St. -2
Pick:  Indiana +2


Extra Pick


Let's keep this in state.  With a three seed in the Horizon League still up for grabs against a team Butler has already beaten twice, this is the perfect opportunity for the Bulldogs to regain momentum heading into the post season.  It is in games like these that Butler's coach Brad Stevens has made a living off of making statements in.  Before the loss at Valparaiso, Butler was on a five game winning streak which included a road win against a good Cleveland State team and home blow out against an even better Missouri Valley Conference team in Indiana State.  Time for Butler to get back on track in what I expect to be a convincing win in Hinkle Fieldhouse that reminds the Horizon League that the road to the Big Dance still goes through them.

Spread:   Butler -11
Pick:   Butler -11


Blogger's Note:  We're in the process of figuring out the logistics of creating a podcast for this blog.  If we can make it happen, we're hoping to have our first episode up sometime during the Big Ten tournament at the earliest and right before March Madness at the latest.  We have no idea what we want to title the podcast at this point so if you have any suggestions leave a comment on this post or send me a tweet @HoosierSully16.  If there is more than one option we like, we'll add a poll to the site and let the reader's decide.  Help us out!

Cross Country Picks

To prepare myself for March Madness, I decided I would try to hone my skills on researching teams from other conferences.  In this post, I will pick a game from each of the major conferences.  The beauty of sports betting is that it isn't an exact science.  My goal is just to lay out what information I would consider, to help make an informed decision on what side to take.  I will continue to remind reader's that I'm not trying to pass myself off as any kind of handicapper.  In fact, I would say that I am more like the Kevin Malone of sports betting.   With that being said, here are my cross country picks:

Big Ten

Game:  Nebraska @ Michigan St., 8:00 pm EST

Spread:  Michigan St. -19

There aren't many coaches you would  rather have coaching your team this time of year than Tom Izzo.  His team has the Big Ten regular season championship in their sights and don't think he's going to let his team take a game off against the lowly Cornhuskers.  Nebraska has struggled in their first year in the conference with a 4-11 record to date.  In their 11 loses their

Jeremy Lin... meet Lebron James

Coming into this season, the Heat versus the Knicks was considered one of the better match-ups on paper... and that was before the meteoric rise of Jeremy Lin.  Now this match-up has more of a buzz than anyone could have ever imagined.  Forget Melo and Stoudemire, this game has now become "Linsanity" v. "King James" Round 1.

I think this will probably be one of the most watched games this season, especially considering the international appeal and following that Lin has garnered.  Because of that, I feel it is only necessary that I make a pick.  The Heat are currently riding a seven game winning streak, which is good for the longest active streak in the NBA.  In those seven games, the first five of which were on the road, the Heat have won each in dominating fashion.  As of this morning, the line for tonight's game favors the Heat at home by 9 points.  However, I will be focusing on the first half line for this particular game which currently has the Heat as 5 point favorites.

With my focus being on the first half, I wanted to dig a little deeper into the Heat's seven game winning streak:

During Miami's winning streak they are 6-1 against first half spreads.  I included the standing of the teams because their biggest blowouts in the first half have come against some of the better teams in the Eastern Conference (Atlanta / Indiana) while some of their weaker first half showings have come against weaker teams (Washington / Sacramento).  This Heat team seems to play up and down to the moment and / or their competition.

So far in this season, the Heat know when to show up and know how to make a statement.  And considering the Knicks usually make second half pushes and the Heat take advantage of their athleticism early, this could end up being another double digit lead for Miami at the half.  This also may be the first time this season that Jeremy Lin faces a team that is athletic enough to switch on the high pick and roll.  The Knicks utilize the high pick and roll to get Lin into space which gives him the opportunity to either drive or kick it out to an open teammate.  With the athletes on Miami's team, I just don't see that style of offense being as successful as it has been recently.

Although I think the Heat could cover the full game spread, the NBA seems to be notorious for back door covers in games like this.  I could easily see Miami having a 15-20 point lead dwindle back down to inside of 10 in the final minutes just because that's the nature of the NBA.  When a win is guaranteed, the stars come off the court and defense is almost non-existent.  It is for that reason that I think the halftime line is a safer play.

Pick:  Miami -5.0 (first half line)

B1G Game of the Night

I'll be honest, after I looked at some of the power rankings made by several ESPN insiders last week, I realized that I knew nothing about college basketball outside of the Big Ten. Wichita State and Drexel were in several of their rankings and it made no sense to me. Because of that fact, for the remainder of the CBB season, you will probably only see posts discussing B1G games. Once the "Big Dance" comes around I'll have some homework to do on teams from other conferences to gain a better understanding of the match-ups.

The first college game I'm going to look at on this blog is Michigan at Northwestern. Currently the Wildcats are a 1.5 point favorite and are coming off win in a must-win at home against Minnesota. Northwestern is still searching for their first NCAA tournament bid in their program's history and another win at home against the 11th ranked Wolverines would certainly give the selection committee something to think about.

On the other side, Michigan is peaking at the right time. Since losing by 15 at Ohio State (ranked 10th at the time) just over three weeks ago, the Wolverines have won four out of five culminating in a revenge win against those same Buckeyes (ranked 6th for the rematch). Although they are lead by freshman guard sensation Trey Burke, who has averaged over 14 points and 4 assists over the past 5 games, Michigan seems to go as their three point efficiency goes. Here's a look at their three point shooting in their four conference losses versus their last four conference wins:

In their four conference losses it seems as though that when they get down they rely heavily on the three to get back in the game. This is the definition of a team that lives and dies by the three. When they can't hit from beyond the arc they're in a lot of trouble. In the 2/18/2012 match-up versus Ohio State, they didn't shoot well from three, but countered that with their ability to get in the lane and create shots off of dribble penetration. Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to effectively defend Burke or Tim Hardaway Jr. so I would expect this to be a game where they take advantage of their ability to break down their defenders. I'm expecting fewer 3PA as a percentage of their FGA, but also expect the majority of their 3PA they do get off to be wide open based on Northwestern's defense having to collapse once Michigan's guards find their way into the paint.

I'm focusing my attention in this post on Michigan because you know what you're going to get with Northwestern. John Shurna is going to get his points as the offense goes through him whenever he is on the court. As long as Michigan can disrupt Drew Crawford and Dave Sobolewski, the Wildcats won't have the fire power to keep up with the Wolverines. This is a different Michigan team that Northwestern will be facing compared to the team that allowed the Wildcats to take them into overtime in Ann Arbor. They're coming off their biggest win of the season against Ohio State and have the confidence and swagger that makes them an extremely difficult match-up for anyone in the Big Ten.

Before giving my pick, I wanted to share both Michigan and Northwestern's record against the spread:

Along with all of my thoughts above, Northwestern's weak record at home against the spread has all but forced me to take Michigan and the points. I would even contemplate buying a 1/2 point. Not because Michigan sometimes struggles on the road, but because it allows for the opportunity (albeit small) for a push.

Decision: Michigan +2 (buy 1/2 point)

Better Value: With the spread already being small, because I like Michigan, I also would consider taking the Michigan moneyline (+115). Taking this bet limits my risk with the opportunity to achieve the same payout as betting the spread.