CBB Picks: 1/17/2013

Well it's a few games into the conference season and I think it's time to actually start making some picks.  I've gotten to watch most of the Big Ten teams several times and hopefully have calibrated my pick-making skill... yeah, let's call it skill.  Unlike when I first started the blog, I'm going to keep the reasoning short in sweet.  Who cares much about the reasoning behind picks if you're getting them right, right? Right.

So here we go, my first college basketball picks of the 2012-13 season:

Game:  Michigan @ Minnesota, 7:00PM
Pick:  Michigan ML (+125)

Ah, I've missed this.  First pick right out of the gate is a road dog in a clash of top 10 teams in the Big Ten where road wins are a luxury.  Let's revisit Michigan's first loss against rival Ohio State.  Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 9 for 28 from the field and Nick Stauskas didn't register a single point (averages 12.7ppg).  It's quite simple, I don't expect that the Wolverines top two offensive threats and one of the best three point shooters in the country to have off nights in the same game tonight.  They lost by three, on the road, against their heated rival with those performances.  The Barn is an extremely tough place to play, but I'm predicting Michigan to win out right by four to seven points.  If you want to play it safe, I obviously am not opposed to Michigan +2.5 either.

Game:  Florida @ Texas A&M, 7:00PM
Pick:  Texas A&M +10.5

Let me preface this pick with the fact that I don't follow the SEC all that much.  Color me crazy, but giving a home team 10.5 points during conference play, a team that is coming off a big road win at Kentucky (I know Kentucky isn't as good as people thought, but any win at Rupp Arena is legit), doesn't sit right with me.  I'm purely taking Texas A&M out of principle.  Also, the total on this game is 122.  Friendly advice from a friend of mine suggested coupling your home dog with the over.  All you need is Texas A&M to get to 56 points (they're averaging 67 points) and you're at least going to push on the game.

Game:  Northwestern @ Illinois, 8:15 PM
Pick:  Illinois -10.0

If Northwestern had Drew Crawford, well not only would I not pick Illinois here they would probably only be six or seven point favorites.  The Wildcats just don't have the athletes to effectively and consistently defend the Illini.  They are known for their Princeton style offense which can give teams fits at times, but they won't be able to score enough points.  I expect this to be a night where Brandon Paul gets 25+ points and has a legit shot to add another 40 point game to his resume.  Illinois is the team that lives and dies by the three.  This may be one of the few games in conference they won't have to be reliant on the deep ball, but if they're hitting, it could get ugly quick.

Over Reaction or Valid Concern?

How far can talent alone take a team?  That's something to ask John Calipari about his 2010 team (a team that featured John Wall, Demarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe that fell short in the Elite 8).  How far can pure genius, from an in-game coaching perspective, take a team?  That's something to ask Brad Stevens about his 2010 and 2011 teams (neither team had high pre season expectations, but in hindsight his 2010 team was legitimately good).

One thing is for certain, Indiana has enough talent to make a run at both the Big Ten and National championships.  And up until this point, Coach Tom Crean has lived up to any and all expectations placed on him when he took the head coaching position.  He inherited a program with nothing to offer aside from its tradition and rich history and built it back up to where it used to be from a personnel stand point.  It is now "cool" to go to Indiana to play basketball once again.  However, for three years he was able to hide behind the fact that there just wasn't a lot of talent on the roster.  Now that the talent has arrived, fans have finally gotten the chance to see what the Crean system looks like.

It's fast paced, it's exciting and to use a term that Stephen A. Smith coined to describe RGIII, it's "box office"... when shots are falling, that is.  What seems to be occurring more and more frequently are long periods of stagnant offense.  This was never more apparent and more glaring than last night at home in Assembly Hall against Wisconsin.  Sure, the Hoosiers went into halftime with a one point lead, but our offensive struggles were overshadowed by Cody Zeller's 8-8 from the field for 18 point performance.  Take Zeller's statistics away and the Hoosiers shot in the 25-27% range. 

During his interview heading into the visiting locker room, Bo Ryan made it clear they were willing to allow Zeller to score at will, as they were trying to take away the Hoosiers three point shooting.  This was abundantly clear all game with how the Badgers swarmed Jordan Hulls every time he touched the ball.  I was expecting the Hoosiers to come out and run some set plays to free some of their shooters up, but they never came.  At each timeout, as the offense continued to struggle, I kept telling myself that adjustments were coming, but they didn't.

An offense that is predicated on taking place primarily in transition was stymied by a disciplined Wisco defense that forced the Hoosiers to play in the half court.  Their set plays, if you want to call them that, rely on the defense not being completely set and with enough ball movement, usually leads to wide open jump shots or easy baskets.  But when the transition game isn't effective, what is the Hoosier's Plan B?  I honesty don't have an answer to that.

Don't get me wrong, I would put Crean up against any coach in the country when it comes to recruiting (I've mentioned in a previous post that he is 3-0 in head to head recruiting battle with Roy Williams) and player development (Victor Oladipo, unranked high school recruit to top 30 prospect in most NBA mock drafts).  As far as in game adjustments?  That's where the uncertainty for this team lies. 

Call it an over reaction and I can admit that I'm still not quite thinking clearly after the loss, but could it be that Indiana's ceiling is based on Crean's ability (or lack thereof) to adjust to the flow of each game?  I know some people will say that some of the blame has to lie with the players and that he can't control how they play, I get it.  But much like the quarterback position in football, the head coach in college basketball has to call audibles to get his team in the best position to win.  I didn't see that from Crean last night and it's not the first time I haven't seen it from him this season. 

I'm not an expert.  I don't claim to be.  I am, however, an avid fan that has an opinion based on what I have been seeing.  That doesn't mean my support for Crean has diminished in any way, shape or form, but that doesn't mean I'm not concerned.

Consider this post my opinionated-driven, amateur-esque attempt at a call to action.  Shut me up Crean.  Shut up those that are having doubts, whether they're over reacting or not, and the Hoosiers will be just fine.

In Hindsight: Iowa Hawkeyes

Blogger's Note:  While most of you made resolutions to get healthier or to give up a vice or two, I've decided that one of my New Year's resolutions will be to post more on this blog.  According to the site, I haven't posted since May 12, 2012.  In my defense, there was absolutely nothing going on in the world of Indiana athletics.  However, since my last post Hoosier Men's Soccer added an 8th National Championship (second most in the nation behind the University of Saint Louis); Tom Crean has continued his dominance on the recruiting trail landing 2013's No. 7 overall prospect Noah Vonleh (which increases CTC's head-to-head recruiting record with Roy Williams to 3-0 since coming to Indiana -- Cody Zeller & Troy Williams being the other two recruits); and Robert Montgomery Knight made a step, albeit a really small one, in coming home to Hoosier Nation when he called his first Indiana basketball game on November 19th against the Georgia Bulldogs. 

A lot has happened in between posts.  But the Hoosiers just started B1G play, which will be the focus of this post and hopefully the many more to follow. 

Sully's back ... at least through the basketball season.

 

 

I really think the above picture depicts the type of game we saw in Indiana's B1G opener against Iowa in Iowa City on New Year's Eve.  It wasn't pretty, but it still goes in the "W" column.  There wasn't much to take away from the non-conference schedule other than Assembly Hall is a really tough place to play, the Tarheels were overrated and the Bulldogs were underrated.  So what could we take away after one game into the B1G season?

 

1.  The Hoosiers won in spite of Jordan Hulls's struggles.  The Hawkeyes didn't lose because of Roy Marble's struggles.

 

Simple math would indicate that if Marble went 4 - 14 rather than 1 - 14 shooting the Hawkeye's should have won.  Maybe so.  My point is that nine times out of ten Hulls will not go opher from the floor.  Additionally, nine times out of ten Victor Oladipo will shut down Marble.  The only evidence you need is to go back and look at the shot selection of both players.  Over half of the shots that Hulls attempted were open looks that he normally makes with a blindfold on; while over half of shots Marble took were either highly contested or just forced.  Marble can say that Indiana is a team they know they can beat all he wants (which is exactly what he said postgame), I just hope he knows that if Oladipo is guarding him they'll have to do it without him.

 

2.  Zone defense is something IU fans will have t get used to during the B1G season.

 

I don't have any advanced metrics or crazy statistics to back up what I am about to say, but they're unnecessary.  The eye test confirms the Hoosiers are a much better man-to-man team.  Countless times Iowa would claw their way back into the game by converting uncontested shots given up by the Hoosier zone.  Why does CTC continuously revert to this scheme?  Protection.  There aren't many teams, if any, that the back court of Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell can guard for multiple possessions.  Case and point:  After Hulls picked up his second foul early in the first half (both came while in man-to-man), whenever Hulls saw the floor (up until several minutes into the second half) the Hoosiers were strictly in a zone.  It appeared to me that it was to help prevent Hulls from picking up his third foul.  As much as Hulls has improved his defensive skill set (for those that follow closely, it is obvious that he has), he will still get punished by other guards in the B1G.  Switching to a less effective zone defense shows his worth on the offensive end.  Don't chalk this up to CTC's lack of in game adjustments, this is nothing more than a tactic to maintain Hulls's playing time while only occasionally (at best) catching teams off guard.

 

3.  The Hoosiers have a chip on their shoulder this season... and his name is Will Sheehey.

 

I can list a few recent Hoosiers that had relentless energy and could single-handedly change the momentum upon checking into any given game.  Guys like A.J. Moye, Roderick Wilmont, and most notably the legend that is Tijan Jobe.  Not since Dane Fife has Indiana had some one in which Hoosier Nation adored while every other fan base despised.  Let me paint a picture for you:

 

Will Sheehey steps to the free throw line for the first time in Iowa City.  Even while watching on TV, audible "Shee-hey Sucks!" chants could be heard from the Hawkeye student section (probably because they're jealous of his oh so sweet mid-range game.  I'm not kidding, I would put his mid-range jumper up against anyone else's in the country... P-U-R-E).  As if he's the only person in the arena he bounces the ball twice, eyes the shot.... Swish.  Silence.

 

Sheehey relishes the role of being the thorn to every non-Hoosier fan in the country.  It is that exact attitude that the entire team needs to adopt if they want to meet the lofty pre-season expectations fans and national syndicates alike have bestowed upon them.  They need to be un-flappable, un-phaseable (word?), ultra-competitive, scrappy... they need to be like, Will Sheehey.